000 AXNT20 KNHC 271755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda High and lower pressure near Panama/Colombia will continue to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Seas are expected to peak at 12 to 13 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Residual NW swell associated with a complex frontal system over the north-central Atlantic will continue to impact the central Atlantic waters today. Combined seas of 12 to 14 ft should persist north of 26N between 29W and 42W. As this swell steadily subside late this afternoon through this evening, seas are going to drop below 12 ft later this evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast at southern Sierra Leone to 02N23W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is flaring up near and south of the trough from the Equator to 04N between 10W and 31W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A pre-frontal trough is triggering scattered showers along the Texas/Louisiana coast. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending westward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the entire Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through this period. A cold front entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue will move southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed morning. High pressure over the SE United States by the end of the week will support moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the basin, and locally fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. A 1023 mb Bermuda High sustains a trade-wind flow across the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are seen at the south-central basin. Fresh easterly winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are present at the north-central basin. Fresh to strong ESE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft exist at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean most of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Tue night, then again Thu night and Fri night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed morning, occasionally reaching near-gale force. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for details on large NW swell and rough seas at the central Atlantic. A cold front curves southwestward from east of the Azores across 31N30W to near 23N45W, then continues westward as a surface trough to 24N52W. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Brazilian coast near and north of Belem. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the 12 to 14 ft seas mentioned in the Special Features section, 7 to 11 ft seas in NW swell are present north of 22N between 29W and 60W. Otherwise, a 1023 mb Bermuda High near 28N59W is providing light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas across the western and central Atlantic north of 20N between 60W and the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are occurring off the northeastern Florida coast. For the northeastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail near the Canary Islands north of 17N between the African coast and 37W. Farther southwest, moderate with locally fresh NE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found from 05N to 20N between 37W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern United States coast on Tue morning, then slowly track southeastward through Fri when it will reach to along 22N/23N. Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in the vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas by Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the Bahamas by the end of the week. $$ Forecaster Chan