607 AXNT20 KNHC 252153 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through Mon night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 13 ft each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W. Atlantic large swell event: Large NW swell associated with a complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic will propagate south of 30N tonight between 40W and 55W. Swell in excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of 25N and east of 45W Sun and Sun night, before shifting east of 35W early Mon. Maximum combined seas will be 17 ft near 31N40W late Sun. Wave periods will average 12 to 14 seconds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near the border of Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 03N30W. The ITCZ continues from 03N30W to 01S30W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N and E of 28W. Scattered showers are noted from 00N to 03N between 27W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southwest Louisiana to south Texas. A surface trough extends from southeast Louisiana to 27N94W. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the north-central Gulf. Recent buoy observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the south-central Gulf, on the periphery of the ridge, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas. Light and variable breezes are noted over the northwest Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft combined seas. Moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be causing modest limitations to visibility over the far western Gulf. For the forecast, the weak stationary front over the far northwest Gulf should gradually dissipate tonight. Therefore, a surface ridge stretching into the central Gulf from the western Atlantic should continue to dominate the area through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through this period. A cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Tue morning, then move farther southeast and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico by Tue night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed. By late Wed night or Thu morning, it will reach from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche while weakening. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds will prevail across the Bay of Campeche and southeastern Gulf behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated strong to near- gale force winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, northwest of Cartagena. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted elsewhere over the south- central Caribbean, with 7 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted elsewhere over the Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with 5 to 7 ft seas, except 3 to 5 ft seas north of 18N and east of 85W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge near 25N and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean Sea through midweek next week. These winds north of Colombia are expected to pulse between near-gale and gale-force at night through Tue night. Easterly fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and north of Hispaniola through Mon night. In addition, fresh to strong with locally near-gale trade winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras until Wed afternoon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell event expected to begin tonight. A broad ridge extends east-to-west across the waters north of 20N, anchored by 1023 mb high pressure near 28N65W. A ship reported 20 kt winds out of the W-NW and combined seas to 10 ft near 30N57W, between the ridge and a cold front approaching this area from the north. NW swell ahead of the front is supporting 8 to 10 ft combined seas as far south as 28N between 45W and 60W. Buoys report moderate to maybe fresh SW winds off northeast Florida, on the western periphery of the ridge. Generally light breezes are noted along the ridge. Moderate NE winds are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft seas mostly in NW swell mixed with shorter period NE swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge associated with a 1023 mb high near 28N65W will prevail over the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Tue evening, then slowly track eastward north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front. This front should get reinforce by a high moving off the US Mid-Atlantic coast on Thu, generating fresh NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas. $$ Christensen