000 AXNT20 KNHC 250458 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure gradient, that is between an Atlantic Ocean surface ridge, and comparatively lower pressure in Colombia, will continue to induce strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea in general. The wind speeds will pulse to gale-force during the late night and early morning hours, within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through Tuesday night. The sea heights are forecast to range from 8 feet to 9 feet from 10N to 14N between 70W and 80W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on this event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W, to 01N25W. The ITCZ is along 05S25W, 06S32W, to 05S37W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet within 180 nm of the coast of Texas from the middle Texas Gulf coast southward, and within 180 nm off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the rest of the area that is from 90W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the Straits of Florida, and from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere from 90W eastward. Fresh to strong SE winds have been in the western one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the rest of the area. It is possible that light smoke from agricultural fires may be in parts of the western Gulf of Mexico. It is expected for the amounts to be less than what has been reported during recent days. High pressure ridging extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the western Atlantic will slowly shift south through late Mon. Moderate to fresh winds southerly winds will continue across most of the Gulf through late tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through the period. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Mon night and move slowly southeastward. The front will reach from northern Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue and the southeastern Gulf to the central Gulf by late Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will follow behind the front. Fresh east to southeast winds develop in the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the Gale-Force Wind Warning, within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. The gale-force winds are imminent. Near gale-force NE winds are elsewhere within 150 nm of the coast of Colombia. Strong NE winds are elsewhere in the remainder of the areas that are within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the areas that are from 17N southward between 70W and 80W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 09N to 21N between 56W and 66W. Strong easterly winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Honduras. Fresh easterly winds are elsewhere from 80W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are moving through the NE part of the Windward Passage. Moderate SE winds are elsewhere from 17N northward between 70W and 80W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 14N southward between NE Colombia and 80W. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet from 14N to 16N between 68W and 71W. The sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 80W eastward. The sea heights are ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet from 80W westward. The pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to near gale to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through at least Tue night. Winds will pulse to strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras this evening and continue into early next week. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N37W, to 29N40W, 26N50W, to 25N54W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 20W and 60W. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward from 60W eastward in general. An exception has been the sea heights that have been ranging from 10 feet to 11 feet between Africa and the Canary Islands. The sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet from 20N southward from 60W eastward. An exception has been the range from 2 feet to 4 feet within 180 nm to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 24N northward from 20W eastward. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are within 500 nm to 750 nm on either side of the line 17N19W 11N35W 13N48W 18N62W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 09N to 21N between 56W and 66W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 29N64W. The sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet between 60W and 70W. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward. The sea heights are ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet from Andros Island southward. The sea heights have been 1 foot or less near the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are on the western side of the anticyclonic wind flow that is moving around the 1022 mb high pressure center, from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward. High pressure will prevail over the area through the weekend, then shift slightly southward next week as a cold front moves across the waters north of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds will be in the vicinity of the cold front along with building seas. Winds are expected to reach near gale- force speeds on either side of the front north of 29N the middle of next week as the front reaches from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas and to east- central Cuba. $$ MT/al