000 AXNT20 KNHC 241712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 10-12 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 12N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on this event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal Africa near 07N12W to 00N24W. The ITCZ continues from 00N24W to the coast of Brazil near 00N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-04N between 14W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high-pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic, across Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Recent observations indicate fresh to strong SSE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft across the western Gulf, while seas are 4-6 ft over the Bay of Campeche. Moderate easterly winds are funneling through the Straits of Florida, generating 4-5 ft seas. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure ridging will gradually shift south through late Mon. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon. Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Mon night and move slowly southeastward. The front should reach from northern Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will follow in behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, leading to subsidence and relatively dry conditions. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh trades across the eastern Caribbean, and fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean. E-NE winds are strong to near gale in the Colombian basin. Fresh NE winds likely prevail over the Windward Passage while fresh E winds are in the lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the western Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft in the E Caribbean and 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean, except up to 10 ft S of 12N and W of 75W. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Windward Passage, Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba, and generally around 3-4 ft elsewhere across the NW Caribbean. Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, winds will continue to pulse to strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras this evening and continue into early next week. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends across the western subtropical Atlantic from a 1024 mb high pressure near 30N60W to Cape Canaveral, FL. Gentle winds prevail within 150 nm of the ridge axis. Winds increase to moderate easterlies south of 27N. Seas follow a similar trend, ranging from 4-5 ft off northern and central FLorida to 7-8 ft just east of the SE Bahamas. A cold front extends from 31N41W to 23N58W. A shear line is analyzed from 23N58W to 21N71W. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring within 180 nm NW of the cold front, mainly north of 26N and east of 53W. Seas are 10-12 ft in the strong wind area. Fresh NE winds and 7-10 ft seas prevail elsewhere within 270 nm NW of the front and shear line, to the east of 70W. Light to moderate SW winds and 8-10 ft seas prevail east of the front to 35W, mainly north of 29N. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the front, mainly north of 29N. East of the aforementioned front, another surface ridge extends WSW from a 1026 mb high near 35N15W to 26N36W. Light to gentle winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail in the ridge area. Fresh NE winds and 8-10 ft seas extend from the coast of Morocco through the Canary Islands SW to about 20N26W. Over the tropical Atlantic, moderate trades and seas of 5-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the shear line will become diffuse this afternoon while the cold front weakens and becomes stationary. Winds west of 60W will diminish some this afternoon. High pressure ridging will settle in along 28N late today, with an E to W orientation. Fresh southerly winds are expected offshore northeast Florida tonight through Sat night as a weak frontal boundary moves just offshore southeastern Georgia and NE Florida. The high pressure ridge will then be nudged southward to along 26N Mon through late Tue as a cold front approaches 31N. $$ ERA