570 AXNT20 KNHC 240354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing near gale to minimal gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak around 12 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to the equator at 31W. The ITCZ continues from 00N31W to 01S43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the monsoon trough from the equator to 07N, between 13W to 25W. Scattered weak convection is observed near the ITCZ from 02S to 02N, between 36W to 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high-pressure ridge extends across the northern portion of the basin. Moderate to fresh SE flow dominates the western Gulf, with seas of 5-7 ft. A surface trough along the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds offshore Merida Mexico, where seas are 4-6 ft. Moderate easterly winds are funneling through the Florida Straits, generating 4-5 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure ridging extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the western Atlantic will persist through Fri night, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening hours through the next few days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon. Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late on Mon and stall. The front will then begin to move southeastward starting late Mon night in response to high pressure that will build southward behind it. The front should reach from northern Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will follow in behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean. E-NE winds are strong to gale force in the Colombian basin. Locally, winds are also strong in the lee of the Dominican Republic and through the Windward Passage. Easterly winds are generally moderate in the NW Caribbean. Seas are generally in the 6-8 ft range, with 9-11 ft near the Colombian Basin gales, and 4-6 ft observed in the SE and NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high-pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing near gale to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Winds will continue to pulse to strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras Fri evening and continue into early next week. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The western subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a high-pressure ridge stretching roughly along 29N. Winds are gentle within the ridge, increasing to moderate easterlies south of 28N and further increasing to fresh through the Old Bahama Channel. Seas follow a similar trend, increasing from 4-8 ft with decreasing latitude, although seas remain 3-5 ft in the lee of the Bahamas. A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low centered near 31N47W to the SE Bahamas near 22N72W. A recent scatterometer pass found strong to near gale force NE winds just north of the low center. Otherwise winds are generally fresh from the NE with 8-12 ft seas behind the front and gentle to moderate from various directions with 5-8 ft seas ahead of the front. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 31N31W and associated ridge extending NE and SW dominates the pattern. Winds are gentle within the ridge, increasing to fresh northeasterlies as the pressure gradient increases near the Canary Islands. Otherwise winds are generally moderate from the NE in the eastern Atlantic with 6-10 ft seas north of 16N and 4- 6 ft seas south of 16N. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 25N55W to 21N70W early Fri before dissipating. Fresh to strong northeast winds and high seas will continue behind this front north of 25N and east of 64W through tonight. High pressure ridging will settle in along 28/29N late Fri, with an E to W orientation. Fresh southerly winds are expected offshore northeast Florida Fri night through Sat night as a weak frontal boundary moves just offshore southeastern Georgia and NE Florida. The high-pressure ridge will then be nudged southward to along 26N Mon through late Tue as a cold front approaches 31N. $$ Flynn