000 AXNT20 KNHC 231044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge extending to north of Puerto Rico and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale force nightly near the coast of Colombia through Sat night. Seas will peak around 12-13 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N26W to 02N36W. The ITCZ continues from 02N36W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 07N between 05W and 18W, from 01N to 05N between 18W and 30W, and from 02N to 05N between 42W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid- to upper-level anticyclone is over the Gulf of Mexico currently, leading to subsidence and dry conditions. At the surface, high pressure ridging extends from Bermuda to the coast of Georgia and into the Gulf of Mexico. This feature, combined with lower pressure over Mexico, is supporting a moderate pressure gradient in the western Gulf. West of 90W, winds are fresh from the SE with 5-7 ft seas. A weakening diurnal surface trough over the eastern Bay of Campeche is supporting fresh E winds in the area. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Bay of Campeche as a result. Easterly winds are fresh in the Florida Straits and SE Gulf of Mexico with 4-6 ft seas. In the NE Gulf, winds are gentle and seas are slight. For the forecast, high pressure along the coast of Georgia will shift E into the Atlantic through Sat, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next few days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The mid-level anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico extends southeastward and covers the western two-thirds of the Caribbean Sea. As a result, no significant areas of precipitation are noted. Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to strong easterly winds are affecting the waters of the central Caribbean, along with seas of 7-10 ft. Easterly trade winds are fresh in the eastern Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas. Fresh NE to E winds are occurring in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail elsewhere across the NW Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing near gale to minimal gale force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras late Fri and persist through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N51W to 25N63W, where it continues as a stationary front to 23N72W. Strong NE winds are behind the front, extending W to 63W, and N of 28N. Seas are 10-12 ft in this area. Behind the front from 25N to 28N and E of 69W, fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail. High pressure ridging dominates north of 27N and west of 71W, where winds are gentle and seas are 5-7 ft. Farther south, fresh NE to E winds prevail across the Bahamas, Old Bahama Channel, Straits of Florida and Windward Passage. In the central Atlantic, a ridge extends SW from a 1024 mb high pressure centered near 29N42W to near 23N64W. Winds are light to gentle within the ridge with 5-7 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds increase to moderate to locally fresh from the ENE, generally from 14N to 22N in the tropical Atlantic, with 6-8 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic a 1008 mb low centered near 23N19W is supporting fresh to locally strong winds and 8-10 ft seas between the Canary Islands and 20N. Winds and seas are generally moderate elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 30N55W to 25N63W will continue moving SE through tonight, and reach from 25N55W to 23N63W early Fri before dissipating. Fresh to strong NE winds and high seas will continue behind this front north of 26N and east of 64W through tonight. High pressure will build in along 29N N of the old boundary Fri and persist through the weekend. $$ Hagen