000 AXNT20 KNHC 230356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge extending along 24N-25N and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong winds over the south- central Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale force nightly near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Seas will peak around 12-13 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 01N38W. The ITCZ continues from 01N38W to the equator at 50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 04N, between 20W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico with a 1025 mb high analyzed near the Florida Big Bend area. This feature, combined with lower pressure over Mexico, is supporting a moderate pressure gradient in the western Gulf. West of 90W, winds are moderate to fresh from the SE with 5-7 ft seas. A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting fresh E-NE winds offshore Merida, Mexico. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Bay of Campeche as a result. Easterly winds are fresh in the Florida Straits with 4-6 ft seas. Closer the high-pressure center in the NE Gulf, winds are gentle and seas are slight. For the forecast, high pressure over the SE United States will shift E into the Atlantic through Sat, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf tonight through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off the NW Yucatan during the evening through the next few days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to strong easterly winds are affecting the waters of the central Caribbean, along with seas of 7-10 ft. Easterly trade winds are fresh in the eastern Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas. Easterly winds are moderate to fresh in the NW Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. A few showers are noted in the lee of central Cuba, in an area of fresh to strong NE winds. For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high-pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing near gale to minimal gale force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola beginning this evening. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras late Fri and persist through early next week. Large trade wind swell over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will subside tonight through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N54W to 25N66W, where it continues as a stationary front to the SE Bahamas. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong NE winds behind the front with gentle to moderate winds ahead of the front. Behind the front, seas are 10-12 ft north of 26N and 8-10 ft south of 26N. West of 70W, high pressure dominates with moderate E-SE winds and 5-7 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a ridge extends SW from a 1024 mb high pressure centered near 28N41W. Winds are light within the ridge with 5-7 ft seas. South of the ridge winds increase to moderate from the ENE with 6-8 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic a 1010 mb low centered near 24N18W is supporting fresh to strong winds and 8-10 ft seas between the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Winds and seas are generally moderate elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue moving SE through Thu night, and reach from 25N55W to 24N63W early Fri before dissipating. Fresh to strong NE winds and high seas will continue behind this front north of 26N and east of 65W through Thu night. High pressure will build in along 29N N of the old boundary Fri and persist through the weekend. $$ Flynn