000 AXNT20 KNHC 221705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Mar 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the south- central Caribbean will continue to support strong to near gale force trades during the next several days, pulsing to gale-force at night offshore Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak around 12-13 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N24W to 01N35W. The ITCZ extends from 01N35W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 08N and east of 25W. Similar convection is seen from 02N to 05N and between 31W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico and maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions as it suppresses the development of deep convection. Moderate to locally strong SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are prevalent west of 90W. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds and 3-6 ft seas are found elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United States through Fri, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf late tonight through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next few days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri and move eastward through Sat before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to locally strong easterly winds are affecting the waters of the north-central Caribbean, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean. A few showers are noted near the Cayman Islands and south of western Cuba, while deep convection is absent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge extending 24N-25N and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale force at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola beginning late today. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras late Fri and persist through the weekend. Large trade wind swell over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will subside tonight through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N58W to 24N69W, where it transitions into a stationary front to NE Cuba near 21N75W. A few showers are noted ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly within 120 nm. Fresh to strong NE winds are found behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds occurring north of 28N and east of 69W. Seas of 8-12 ft are evident behind the cold front to 75W. The rest of the SW Atlantic is dominated by a 1033 mb high pressure well north of the region, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions, gentle to moderate E-SE winds and 6-8 ft seas. A 1025 mb high pressure in the central Atlantic is the dominant features patrolling the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft prevail south of 22N and west of 30W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure system off Western Sahara support fresh to locally strong NE winds north of 23N and east of 30W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N59W to the SE Bahamas, where it has become stationary. Fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and rough seas will continue behind this front north of 27N as the north portion moves southeastward through Fri. High pressure will build in along 29N Fri and persist through the weekend. $$ DELGADO