000 AXNT20 KNHC 220359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the south- central Caribbean will continue to support strong trades during the next several days, pulsing to gale-force at night offshore Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak around 12 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal boarder of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 03N28W. No ITCZ is present in the Atlantic basin. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 01N to 06N, between 11W and 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging from the Mid-Atlantic across the southeastern U.S. is the main feature in the Gulf of Mexico. In the western Gulf, winds are fresh from the SE with 6-9 ft seas west of 93W. A surface trough along the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in the eastern Bay of Campeche. In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate from the E-SE with slight seas. The exception is in the Florida Straits, where a fresh easterly breeze is building 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United States through Fri, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf tonight, and again Wed night through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next few days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri and move eastward while losing strength. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting strong to gale force E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are noted in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong trades are observed throughout the eastern Caribbean. Seas are generally 6- 8 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, reaching 9-12 ft near the strongest winds in the Colombian Basin. Conditions are more favorable in the NW basin, with moderate to fresh easterly wind and 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge extending north of Puerto Rico and lower pressure over northern South America will continue to cause strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale force at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola beginning Wed. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras late Fri and persist through the weekend. Large trade wind swell will continue to affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters through tonight before subsiding Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N64W to the Turks and Caicos near 22N73W. Behind the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 6-10 ft seas. Ahead of the front, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE-E with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a 1028 mb high is centered near 30N44W. Winds are gentle near the high and along a ridge that extends ESE towards the SE Bahamas. South of the ridge, winds gradually increase, becoming a fresh easterly breeze south of 20N. Outside of 4-6 ft seas within the ridge axis, Seas are generally 6-9 ft in the central Atlantic, peaking near 17N47W. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds are observed near the Canary Islands with moderate to fresh NE winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N64W to the SE Bahamas. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will continue behind this front north of 27N as it moves southeastward through Thu. The front will reach from near 31N59W to 23N73W Wed morning and from near 29N55W to 23N73W early Thu. High pressure ridging will build in Fri across the area and persist through the weekend. $$ Flynn