000 AXNT20 KNHC 210003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: As the stationary front in the northwestern Caribbean dissipates through Tue, the gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean will tightened. This is forecast to allow for fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean. The exception is that winds will pulse to gale-force at night off the coast of Colombia Tue and Wed along with related seas peaking to 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean over the coast of Sierra Leone near 12N16W and continues to 07N21W and to 01N27W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N34W and to below the Equator near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 05N between 34W-39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 28W-34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure has taken reign over the area. A tight gradient between the high pressure and a trough that extends from northeastern Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche is allowing for fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds to exist south of 23N and west of 90W as seen in a recent partial ASCAT data pass over that part of the Gulf. In addition, buoy 42055 located near 22N94W is reporting northeast to east winds of 20-25 kt. The partial ASCAT data pass also shows moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the the central Gulf. Buoy observations are reporting similar winds in the eastern Gulf. The buoys are also reporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds in the NW Gulf. Seas are in the range of 4-6 ft north of 26N and 6-9 ft south of 26N due to a north to northeast swell, except for higher seas of 8-10 ft in the southeastern Gulf and in the Straits of Florida. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast mainly low clouds with possible isolated showers confined to south of 24N west of 92W, and north of 24N west of 94W. For the forecast, the high pressure will remain over the southern and southeastern United States through the rest of the week, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds. Winds will increase to strong speeds in the western Gulf waters on Tue and again on Thu. Strong winds will also pulse off the northwest Yucatan Peninsula nightly through the next several days, reaching the southern Gulf waters. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Fri and slide eastward afterward while losing strength. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information about an ongoing Gale Warning for a part of the sea. A stationary front is analyzed across the northwestern Caribbean from central Cuba near 22N80W, southwestward to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered to broken low clouds and occasional broken to overcast mid-level clouds are along and within about 240 nm west of the frontal boundary. Isolated showers are possible underneath these clouds, including in the Gulf of Honduras. With high pressure behind the front surging southeastward from the Gulf of Mexico, the gradient between it and the front is leading to strong north to northeast winds west of the front and north of 18N, including the Yucatan Channel and vicinity waters. Seas with these winds are in the 8-12 ft range. Elsewhere, a tight gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean is providing for generally fresh trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean areas, where seas are 5-7 ft, except for higher seas of 6-9 ft due to a northeast to east swell from 11N to 15N between 72W- 76W. Seas of 5-7 ft are also in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, trade winds are of gentle to moderate speeds with seas of 4-6 ft due to a northeast to east swell. Patches of low-level moisture, in the form of scattered to broken low-level clouds moving quickly in the trade wind flow, are observed from 13N to 16N and east of 66W. Isolated showers are possible with these clouds. Low-level cloud streamers with possible isolated showers are south of 13N and east of 69W. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will persist in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through most of tonight. Marine conditions will improve late tonight through Tue as the above mentioned stationary front dissipates. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse off Colombia tonight, then increase to between strong and near gale-force by Tue. These winds will peak at gale-force Tue night and Wed night. Fresh northeast to east winds along with moderate seas will change little in the eastern and north-central Caribbean, including the Atlantic Passages through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from low pressure of 1016 mb near 31N72W to the central Bahamas, where it transitions to a stationary front to inland central Cuba near 23N79W. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are behind the front along with seas of 4-7 ft, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft north of 29N between 74W-77W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are east of the front to near 55W and north of 25N, while moderate east to southeast winds are south of 25N, with the exception of fresh east winds from 19N to 22N between 55W-60W. Seas are 4-7 ft east of the front to near 55W, with the exception of higher seas of 6-8 ft from 19N to 22N between 55W-60W. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast low- level clouds and broken mid-level clouds west of the front to a line from 31N76W to just offshore South Florida and to near Havana, Cuba. Surface observations from the Bahamas indicate isolated mostly light showers with these clouds. Isolated showers are possible over some areas of central Cuba. In the central Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered just north of the area near 32N45W dominates the wind regime and weather pattern for the central and eastern Atlantic areas. A weakening cold front is analyzed from near 31N24W to 26N28W and to near 22N37W. No convection is occurring with this front. Latest ASCAT data passes reveal moderate to fresh northwest to north winds to the northwest of the front, fresh northeast to east winds south of 26N between 30W-40W and also south of 24N between 30W-60W. Winds are light to gentle near the high pressure center. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Atlantic due to a long period northwest to north swell. Moderate winds and seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected behind the western Atlantic cold front described above east of 77W and north of 27N as the front moves southeastward during the next few days. Wind gusts to gale- force are possible late this evening through Tue morning, especially in areas of strong convection. Afterward, fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas should shift eastward across the western Atlantic with the front through Wed night. Large northerly swell to the northeast and east of the Lesser Antilles should gradually subside through Wed. $$ Aguirre