000 AXNT20 KNHC 201543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Mar 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: As the stationary front in the NW Caribbean dissipates over the next 24 hours, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will increase, supporting fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force nightly off the coast of Colombia Tue through Fri with max conditions NE 35 to 40 kt. Seas will peak near 13 ft within the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean over the coast of Sierra Leone near 12N16W and continues to 02N28W. An ITCZ continues from 02N28W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N southward between 17W and 34W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted along the coast on NE Brazil south of 03N and west of 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is building in the wake of a front that has exited the basin. Strong NE winds are noted in the southern Gulf, while gradually decreasing to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf. Seas are moderate in the northern Gulf and increasing to rough to very rough in the southern Gulf, with the highest seas extending into the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the southern and SE United States through the workweek, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds. Winds will increase to strong speeds in the western Gulf waters on Tue and then on Thu. Strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan nightly through the next several days, reaching the southern Gulf waters. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Fri and slides eastward afterwards while losing strength. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information about a Gale Warning. A stationary front extends across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba near 22N80W to the Bay Islands. Isolated showers are observed along the frontal boundary south of 20N and east to 81W. Strong NE winds are observed north of the front in the Yucatan Channel, where seas are currently 9 to 12 ft, on an abating trend. Otherwise, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, where wave heights are 5 to 7 ft, locally 8 to 10 ft off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with slight seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will persist in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through this evening. Marine conditions will improve late tonight through Tue as the stalled front dissipates. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse off Colombia through tonight, then increase to between strong and near-gale by Tue. These winds will peak at gale-force Tue night and Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds, and moderate seas will prevail across the eastern and north-central Caribbean, including the Atlantic Passages through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N72W to central Cuba near 23N79W. Isolated showers are observed along the frontal boundary north of 24N. Behind the front winds are moderate to fresh from the north with 4 to 6 ft seas. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the south with 4 to 6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a 1030 mb high centered near 31N44W dominates the pattern. Winds are gentle near the high-pressure center, increasing to fresh easterlies south of 25N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the central Atlantic within northerly swell. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front is forecast to begin moving eastward again later tonight. By early this afternoon, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected behind this front east of 77W and north of 27N. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible late this evening through Tue morning, especially in areas of strong convection. Afterward, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas should shift eastward across the western Atlantic with the front through midweek. Large northerly swell northeast and east of the Lesser Antilles should gradually subside through Wed. $$ Nepaul