000 AXNT20 KNHC 201014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Mar 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: As the cold front in the NW Caribbean dissipates over the next 24 hours, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will increase, supporting fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force nightly off the coast of Colombia Tue through Fri with max conditions NE 35-40 kt. Seas will peak near 13 ft within the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean over the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues to 01N30W. An ITCZ continues from 01N30W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 07N between 18W and 22W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted along the coast on NE Brazil. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has passed through the basin overnight with high pressure building in its wake. NE winds are strong in the southern Gulf, gradually decreasing to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf. Seas are rough to very rough in the southern Gulf and moderate in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, northerly winds have decreased to between moderate and fresh across the northern Gulf. A similar trend is also expected for the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche by early this afternoon. Seas in the same area should subside to moderate by this evening. By late tonight, a high pressure building southward from the Gulf States will introduce fresh to occasional strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information about a Gale Warning. A stationary front extends across the NW Caribbean from NW Cuba near 22N82W to Honduras near 16N87W. Isolated showers are observed along the frontal boundary. Strong NE winds are observed north the front in the Yucatan Channel, where seas are currently 9-12 ft, on an abating trend. Otherwise, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Gulf is supporting fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, where wave heights are 5-7 ft, locally 8-10 ft off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with slight seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will persist in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through this evening. Marine conditions will improve late tonight through Tue as the stalled front dissipates. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse off Colombia through tonight, then increase to between strong and near-gale by Tue. These winds will peak at gale-force Tue night and Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds, and moderate seas will prevail across the eastern and north-central Caribbean, including the Atlantic Passages through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N70W to NW Cuba near 23N80W. Isolated showers are observed along the frontal boundary. Behind the front winds are moderate to fresh from the north with 4-6 ft seas. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the south with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a 1029 mb high centered near 30N46W dominates the pattern. Winds are gentle near the high-pressure center, increasing to fresh easterlies south of 25N. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Atlantic within northerly swell. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will briefly stall today before moving eastward again as a cold front later tonight. By early this afternoon, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected behind this front east of 77W and north of 27N. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible late this evening through Tue morning. Afterward, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas should shift eastward across the western Atlantic with the front through midweek. Large northerly swell northeast and east of the Lesser Antilles should gradually subside through Wed. $$ Forecasters DF/PC