079 AXNT20 KNHC 200357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Mar 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: N winds of 30-40 kt will persist in the SW Gulf offshore near Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico until early Mon morning. Seas are currently 12 to 15 ft in the south- central and SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Winds and seas should gradually subside through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean over the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues to 01N30W. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W to 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 06N between 21W and 29W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information about a Gale Warning. A cold front has recently passed through the basin with high pressure building in its wake. Outside of the gale force winds along the Mexican coast, NE winds are strong in the southern Gulf, gradually decreasing to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf. Seas are rough to very rough in the southern Gulf and moderate in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas behind the cold front are present across the Gulf south of 27N. Near-gale to gale winds are occurring offshore near Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale-force are also expected at the central Gulf, and eastern Bay of Campeche. As the front moves farther away from the Gulf overnight, marine conditions should gradually improve through Mon. Afterward, high pressure building in the wake of the front will introduce fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf Mon night through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front has entered the NW Caribbean, extending from NW Cuba to Belize. Scattered showers are observed along the frontal boundary. Near gale force NE winds are observed behind the front in the Yucatan Channel, where seas are currently 12-15 ft. Otherwise, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Gulf is supporting fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, where wave heights are 5-7 ft, locally 8 ft off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, a portion of a cold front extends southwestward from northwestern Cuba into the Gulf of Honduras. In response, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will persist in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through Mon evening. Winds and seas will diminish late Mon night through Tue as the stalled front dissipates. A 1030 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic near 31N48W will support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds, and moderate to locally rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon. Moderate northerly swell will persist in the Atlantic passages through midweek. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse off Colombia through Mon, increasing to between strong and near-gale Tue, and possibly reaching gale- force Tue night and Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N72W to NW Cuba near 23N81W. Scattered showers are observed along the frontal boundary. Behind the front winds are moderate to fresh from the north with 5-7 ft seas. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate from the south with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a 1030 mb high centered near 31N48W dominates the pattern. Winds are gentle near the high-pressure center, increasing to fresh easterlies south of 25N. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Atlantic within northerly swell. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are evident along the coast of Western Sahara. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will briefly stall from Bermuda to the Great Bahama Bank on Mon before moving eastward again by Mon night. Increasing northerly winds and building seas are anticipated behind this front east of northeast Florida, north of 27N by Mon afternoon. Large northerly swell northeast and east of the Lesser Antilles should gradually subside through Wed. $$ Flynn