000 AXNT20 KNHC 192152 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Mar 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: N winds of 30-40 kt will persist in the SW Gulf offshore near Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico until early tomorrow morning. Seas are currently 12 to 14 ft in the south- central and SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Once the cold front exits the Gulf of Mexico tonight, winds and seas should gradually subside through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean over the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 03N between 23W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information about a Gale Warning. A strong cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to near Cancun, Mexico. Earlier scatterometer satellite data confirmed winds to gale force over the western Gulf near the coast of Mexico, south of Tampico. Other observations show strong to near-gale force winds elsewhere with rough seas across the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will shift southeast of the area by this evening, with marine conditions gradually improving. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop briefly over the western Gulf Tue before diminishing slightly the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 30N50W. The pressure gradient south of this high is supporting moderate to fresh trades in the eastern and central Caribbean, where wave heights are 4-7 ft seas, locally 8 ft in the south- central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. In the western Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas. A weak surface trough extends from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras, producing a few showers. For the forecast, the high pressure will support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds, and moderate to locally rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon. Moderate northerly swell will persist in the Atlantic passages through midweek. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse off Colombia through Mon, increase slightly Tue, and possibly reach gale-force Tue night and Wed night. Winds and seas will increase in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern Caribbean this evening through Mon as a cold front moves into the area. Winds and seas over these waters will diminish late Mon night through Tue as the stalled front dissipates. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a cold front extending from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft waves are evident both to the west of the front and within 180 nm east of the front. Farther east, 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 31N49W, with broad ridge extending toward the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds are noted along the ridge axis. Fresh trade winds are evident south and east of this ridge, where 7 to 9 ft combined seas are noted as far east as 30W, with a component of northerly swell. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are evident along the coast of Western Sahara, with moderate winds and seas elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Mon morning. Large northerly swell west of 65W will subside early this week. A new set of northerly swell will propagate into the forecast waters late Mon night. Winds will strengthen north of the stalled front Mon, then diminish mid week. $$ Christensen