000 AXNT20 KNHC 180003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Mar 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N41W SW to the Leeward Islands near 17N62W where it stalls and contiues to the Dominican Republic offshore waters. Large and long period NW swell continues in the lee of the cold front. Seas 12 ft or greater are north of 24N between 40W and 61W. Seas peak to 16 ft in the discussion waters N of 30N between 50W and 56W. Swell direction is NW with a period of 11 to 15 seconds. The front will continue moving southeastward and reach from 30N35W to near Barbados Sat morning. The swell behind will spread southward to 17N and beyond 35W. Seas behind the front are not expected to subside below 12 ft until Sun afternoon as the front moves E of 35W. East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between surface high pressure of 1023 mb centered near 33N23W and lower pressures over northern Africa will lead to the development of gale force winds in the regions of Agadir Sat morning through Sat evening and in the Tarfaya region Sat night. Please visit Meteofrance website for further details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from SE Alabama near 30N87W SW to 24N94W to just south of Tampico near 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front to the Florida Big Bend and north of 25N. Gale force N winds of 30-40 kt are currently impacting the west-central Gulf of Mexico offshore waters as well as the Veracruz offshore waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below Gale Force Sat morning. Seas currently between 8-12 ft in the lee of the cold front will build to 10-14 ft across the central and SW Gulf through the weekend. The front will reach from southern Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Sat evening, bringing strong to near-gale N to NE winds into the northeastern and central Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible in the central Gulf Sat evening through Sun, and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these SPECIAL FEATURES. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of Liberia near 06N11W then continues southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 02N20W to 04N35W to the Amazon Delta, Brazil. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 06N between 11W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING. Outside of the Gale Warning area and ahead of the cold front described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, moderate to locally fresh S winds and 4-7 ft seas are analyzed in the central and eastern sections of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Panama City, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by this evening. Winds to gale force following the front over the far W and SW Gulf will diminish through tonight. The front will slowly move across the Gulf through late Sun, spreading strong to near-gale N to NE winds and rough seas into the east-central and central Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible over the south-central Gulf and off northwest Yucatan late Sun. Looking ahead, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the Gulf during the early to middle parts of next week as the front stalls and dissipates over the far northwest Caribbean. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Leeward Islands near 17N62W to the Dominican Republic offshore waters. Fresh NE winds are noted north of the boundary along with seas to 8 ft. High pressure extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean waters supports fresh to locally strong trade winds across the central basin being the strongest winds S of Hispaniola, offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in the aforementioned areas are 5-7 ft. Fresh NE winds are also noted in the Windward and Mona Passages with seas to 8 ft, higher in the Mona Passage. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area behind the front will support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and moderate to occasionally rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean into early next week. Large northerly swell will continue to impact Atlantic passages through Sat night. Fresh to strong E winds will continue to pulse off Colombia through mid week. Winds and seas will increase in the Yucatan Channel by Sun night as a cold front moves into the area. These winds and seas will gradually diminish through Tue as the stalled front dissipates. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Significant Swell Event and a Gale Warning for the regions of Agadir and Tarfaya. A cold front extends from 31N41W SW to the Leeward Islands near 17N62W where it stalls and contiues to the Dominican Republic offshore waters. High pressure of 1022 mb is centered between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda, building behind the cold front. In addition to the area of 12 ft seas described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, seas greater than 8 ft are north of 17N between 37W and 72W. Fresh to strong southerly winds have develop off the coast of Florida N of West Palm Beach and to near 77W ahead of a strong cold front currently moving off Alabama into the Florida Panhandle. Seas are currently to 7 ft. In the far E subtropical Atlantic waters, fresh to strong NE winds prevail between the Canary Islands and the coast of NW Africa. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in that region. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, gentle to moderate trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the current pattern will support moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds off Hispaniola into Sat night. Large northerly swell west of 70W will subside through Sun. Meanwhile expect moderate to fresh southerly flow and building seas north of 29N between northeast Florida and Bermuda through late Sat ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The front will move east and stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Mon. Looking ahead, seas will build north of the stalled front Mon through mid week with NE swell. $$ Ramos