000 AXNT20 KNHC 171712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N44W to the Leeward Islands near 17N63W. Large and long period NW swell continues in the lee of the cold front. Seas 12 ft or greater are north of a line from 31N44W along the cold front to 23N57W to 31N65W. Seas peak to 17 ft in the discussion waters near 31N57W. Swell direction is NW with a period of 11 to 14 seconds. The front will continue moving southeastward and reach from 30N35W to near Barbados Sat morning. The swell behind will spread southward to 17N and beyond 35W. Seas behind the front are not expected to subside below 12 ft until Sun afternoon as the front moves E of 35W. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1500 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Louisiana coast near 29N91W to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. Scattered moderate convection is along the cold front north of 26N. Gale force N winds of 30-40 kt are currently impacting the west- central Gulf of Mexico offshore of Tampico, Mexico in the lee of the cold front. Winds are forecast to diminish below Gale Force Sat morning. Seas currently near 8-9 ft in the lee of the cold front will build to 10-14 ft across the central and SW Gulf through through the weekend. The front will reach from southern Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Sat evening, bringing strong to near- gale N to NE winds into the northeastern and central Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible in the central Gulf Sat evening through Sun, and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these SPECIAL FEATURES. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of Liberia near 06N10W then continues southwestward to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues westward from 02N21W to 04N37W to the Amazon Delta, Brazil. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of both the Monsoon Trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING. Outside of the Gale Warning area and ahead of the cold front described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, moderate to locally fresh S winds and 4-7 ft seas are analyzed in the central and eastern sections of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Panama City, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by this evening. Winds to gale force will follow the front over the far western Gulf off the coast of Mexico. The front will slowly move across the Gulf through late Sun, spreading strong to near- gale N to NE winds and rough seas into the east-central and central Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible at the central Gulf late Sat afternoon through Sun, and at the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night. As the front continues southeastward passing through the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits on Sun night, both winds and seas should gradually subside across the Gulf on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak cold front extends from the Lesser Antilles near 17N63W to 16N71W. Fresh NE winds are noted north of the boundary, with fresh to strong E winds south of Hispaniola and within the Mona Passage. Seas in these areas are 6-8 ft, locally 9 ft in the Mona Passage. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail over the Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where the latest scatterometer data shows fresh trades. Seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will sink farther southward through tonight to near 15N on Sat before gradually dissipating by Sun. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds behind the front will persist across the north-central and northeastern basin, including the Windward and Mona Passages through Sat night. Large N swell will impact both passages and the northeastern basin through Sat night before subsiding Sun. Another cold front is expected to enter the northwestern basin Mon then stall and dissipate Mon night, causing seas to build near the Yucatan Channel. Fresh easterly winds north of Colombia will also pulse to strong every night through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Significant Swell Event. A cold front extends from 31N44W to the Leeward Islands near 17N63W. The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to locally strong NW winds behind the front and fresh to strong S winds ahead of the front, with strongest winds along the front north of 25N. In addition to the area of 12 ft seas described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, seas greater than 8 ft are north of a line from 31N35W to the Leeward Islands to the Turks and Caicos to 31N70W. In the far W Atlantic, 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 28N71W, accompanied by gentle anticyclonic flow and 4-7 ft seas in this region. In the central and eastern Atlantic, an area of 8-12 ft seas in N to NW swell is north of a line from 31N44W to 18N40W to the Cabo Verde Islands to 22N17W near the coast of Western Sahara. Seas to 12 ft were captured on a recent satellite altimeter pass. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, gentle to moderate trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, 1022 mb high pressure is centered between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda, building behind a cold front currently south of the area moving into the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong NW to NE winds behind the front will continue across the waters east of 60W, and northeast of the Virgin Islands through this morning. Large N swell behind this front will spread southward to 20N and east of 70W. The next cold front is expected to move off northeastern Florida on Sat, bringing fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri evening through Sat. This front is expected to reach from 31N72W to Florida Straits late Sun before stalling. $$ Mahoney