000 AXNT20 KNHC 171153 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Mar 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N48W to the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Large northerly swell of 12 to 15 ft behind this front are present north of 25N between 44W and 64W based on earlier altimeter data and buoy observations. The front will continue moving southeastward and reach from 30N35W to near Barbados Sat morning. This swell behind will spread southward to 17N and beyond 35W. Seas behind the front are not expected to subside below 12 ft until Sun as the front moves E of 35W. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf this morning, and then pushes southeastward to the central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche later this afternoon. This will cause strong to near-gale northerly winds and building seas. Winds will reach gale force at the west-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche near Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon through evening. Combined seas will peak at 10 to 14 ft under the strongest winds. The front will reach from southern Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Sat evening, bringing strong to near-gale N to NE winds into the northeastern and central Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible at the central Gulf Sat evening through Sun, and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Liberia coast near Monrovia then continues southwestward to near 03N17W. An ITCZ continues westward from 03N17W across 01N30W to the Amazon Delta, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 25W, and from the Equator to 02N between 25W and Amazon Delta. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning. A strong cold front is reaching the south Texas/Louisiana coast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the front just offshore from the Texas/Louisiana coast. A surface ridge runs west-southwestward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow dominates the entire Gulf. Seas at the northwestern Gulf are 6 to 8 ft, while 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf later this morning, causing strong to near-gale northerly winds and building seas. As this front moves southeastward, these conditions outside the gale warning area will spread to the north-central and southwestern Gulf by this afternoon. This front will reach from southern Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Sat evening, spreading strong to near- gale N to NE winds and rough seas into the east-central and central Gulf. As the front continues southeastward passing through the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits on Sun night, both winds and seas should gradually subside across the Gulf on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends westward from Anguilla across just south of Puerto Rico to south of Jamaica. Scattered showers are evident over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present across the north-central and northeastern basin, including both the Windward and Mona Passages. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are found at the south-central and northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will sink farther southward through tonight to near 15N on Sat before gradually dissipating by Sun. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds behind the front will persist across the north-central and northeastern basin, including the Windward and Mona Passages through Sat night. Large N swell will impact both passages and the northeastern basin through Sat night before subsiding Sun. Another cold front is expected to enter the northwestern basin Mon then stall and dissipate Mon night, causing seas to build near the Yucatan Channel. Fresh easterly winds north of Colombia will also pulse to strong every night through Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about large northerly swell. A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic across 31N47W to near Anguilla. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 80 nm northwest of the front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 9 to 15 ft in large northerly swell are noted from north of Hispaniola/Puerto Rico to beyond 31N between the front and 70W. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas are seen from the northern Cuban coast northward between 70W and the Georgia/Florida coast. A surface ridge stretches southwestward from 1021 mb Azores High to the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 6 to 10 ft seas in moderate northerly swell are found up to 300 nm along either side of the ridge axis. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 8 to 10 ft in moderate northerly swell are present north of 18N between the African coast and 30W. Farther south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are seen from 05N to 18N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue moving southeastward through tonight and reach from 30N35W to near Barbados Sat morning. Fresh to strong NW to NE winds behind the front will continue across the waters east of 60W, and northeast of the Virgin Islands through this morning. Large N swell behind this front will spread southward to 20N and east of 70W. The next cold front is expected to move off northeastern Florida on Sat, bringing fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri evening through Sat. This front is expected to reach from 31N72W to Florida Straits late Sun before stalling. $$ Forecaster Chan