000 AXNT20 KNHC 160502 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N55W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Recent satellite derived wind data show gale force northerly winds just behind the front over the central Bahamas. The front will continue to move SE and reach from near 30N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to gale-force NW winds immediately behind the front will move through the SE Bahamas during the overnight hours, and then shift across the SE waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu and Thu night. Large N swell will accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft or greater N of 25N and E of 70W by Thu evening. At this time, seas will peak 16 ft in the vicinity of 31N65W. This swell event, with seas in the 12 to 16 ft range, will continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters in the wake of the front on Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 09N13W then continues SW to near 07N16W. The ITCZ extends from 07N16W to 02N30W to the Amazon Basin near 01N51W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 25W and 32W, and within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 32W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 02N and W of 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters and the State of Florida where a drier air mass is in place. Fresh NE winds are found in the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf, including the offshore waters of western Cuba. Similar wind speeds are noted off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail, except near the NE Gulf coast. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across most of the Gulf region, except 3 to 5 ft in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S is building across the Gulf in the wake of the front that moved through the southern Gulf today. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf tonight, become fresh to strong early Thu and spread to the entire Gulf Thu night, ahead of the next cold front. This front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Brief gale-force N winds are expected behind the front offshore of the upper Mexican waters Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across central Cuba and the NW Caribbean, crossing just S of the Isle of Youth. Fresh to strong NE winds are seen per scatterometer data in the wake of the front, including the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. Multi-layer clouds with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted over eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Hispaniola ahead of the front. Convection continues to flare up over parts of Central America. High pressure of 1021 mb located over the Atlantic near 28N43W has a ridge that extends into the NE Caribbean. This is resulting in light to gentle winds over the Leeward Islands and regional waters, including also Puerto Rico where a southerly wind flow is noted around the western periphery of the ridge. Fresh to strong winds are observed in the Gulf of Venezuela and mainly fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate wind prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range behind the front, and in the south-central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere ahead of the front. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will shift NE through the rest of the week, as a cold front sinks S-SE across the northwestern basin this evening. The front will reach from the Windward Passage to Belize on Thu, and then from the northern Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean along 17N Fri. Strong winds will follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages, with large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages early Fri through Sat. Another front is expected to stall near or just N of the Yucatan Channel by Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Gale force winds are already occurring just behind the front over the central Bahamas, a new swell event will follow this system. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. A wide band of multi-layer clouds with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms is associated with the front, and it is affecting most of the Bahamas south of Nassau and the Turks and Caicos Islands, including also the Old Bahama Channel. A second cold front stretches from 31N21W to 24N40W. A narrow band of mainly low clouds with possible showers is related to the front. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft in NW swell are behind the front. A 1021 mb high pressure is located between the fronts near 28N43W. This feature dominates most of the east and central Atlantic. Mainly moderate NE to E trades are blowing across the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW to N swell prevailing E of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, another cold front is expected to move off NE Florida late Sat, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri evening through Sat. The new front is expected to reach from 31N70W to S Florida late Sun before stalling. $$ GR