000 AXNT20 KNHC 152105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Mar 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning and Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N57W to western Cuba. The front will continue moving SE, reaching 31N57W to central Cuba this evening, from near 30N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to gale-force northerly winds will occur in a narrow band immediately behind the front as it moves through the Central and SE Bahamas tonight, and then shifts across the SE waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu and Thu night. Large N swell accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft or greater currently N of 28N between 65W and 75W, and peaking near 14ft. The seas of 12 ft or greater will spread as far S as 22N and E of 73W Thu night and Fri, with 12 ft seas then shifting E and gradually subsiding through Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 00N28W. The ITCZ continues from 00N28W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolateds strong convection is observed S of 07N between 11W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh winds are found S of 25N, with gentle to moderate winds N of 25N. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range S of 25N, and 3-5 ft N of 25N. For the forecast, surface ridging building in the wake of the front that moved away from the basin today. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf by tonight, become fresh to strong early Thu and spread to the entire Gulf Thu night, ahead of the next cold front. This front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Brief gale-force N winds are expected behind the front offshore of the upper Mexican waters Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the south central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds over the north central Caribbean as well as the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, surface ridge across the Atlantic will shift NE through the rest of the week as a cold front sinks S-SE across the northwestern basin this evening, reaches from the Windward Passage to Belize on Thu, and then from the northern Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean along 17N Fri. Strong winds will follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages, with large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages early Fri through Sat. Another front is expected to stall near or just N of the Yucatan Channel by Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for more information about upcoming gales and large swell. The cold front responsible for the upcoming gale- force winds and large swell extends from 31N57W to western Cuba. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 120 nm east of the front and N of 28N, as well as west of the front and N of 28N. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere west of the front as well as within 120 NM east of the front. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range N of 26N and W of 55W, and 6-7 ft S of 26N and W of 55W. High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 28N43W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the waters between 27W and 55W, and 6-8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to move SE and reach from near 30N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to gale-force NW winds immediately behind the front will move through the Central and SE Bahamas Wed night, and then shift across the SE waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu and Thu night. Large N swell will accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft or greater N of 22N and E of 73W. Another cold front is expected to move off NE Florida late Sat, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri evening through Sat. The new front is expected to reach from 31N70W to S Florida late Sun before stalling. $$ AL