000 AXNT20 KNHC 141054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell, with significant wave heights of 12 to 21 feet, is occurring north of a line from 31N38N to 22N55W to 31N72W. The highest seas of 16 to 21 ft are occurring north of 27N between 41W-70W. This swell was generated by a frontal system sweeping through the region, with the cold front currently extending from 31N37W to near 20N60W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring on both sides of the front, generally north of 29N between 33W-46W. The NW swell has recently peaked across the waters S of 31N, and will continue to progress SE. The area of seas 12 ft and higher will move E through Wed then lift of out the NE waters Wed afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the large swell event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 14N16.5W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to coastal Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N southward between 29W and 60W. This convection extends inland over Brazil from 00N-03S between 38W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches across the basin from extreme SW Florida and the Florida Bay to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are observed north of the front, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the front E of 83W, while new scattered thunderstorms have recently developed well N of the front from 22N to 26N from the coast to 93W, and is supported by an upper level disturbance. For the forecast, the cold front will sink slowly SSE and gradually dissipate across the SW Gulf Tue night, and move SE of the basin E of 90W on Wed. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf by Wed night, become fresh to strong Thu and spread to the entire Gulf Thu night, ahead of the next cold front. This next front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Gale-force N winds are briefly expected behind the front offshore the upper Mexican waters Fri afternoon and shifting to offshore Veracruz Fri evening and night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fair and stable conditions persist across the Caribbean basin due to mid to upper-level ridging and weak low level winds. A cluster of weak convection has moved eastward across the Gulf of Honduras in the past hour. Moderate to fresh trades have returned to the basin tonight, S of 15N and to the E of 75W, while fresh SE winds extend from northeastern Honduras across the outer Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 4-6 ft in the southern Caribbean, and 4-5 ft across the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are up to ft in the Mona and Anegada Passages in new N-NE swell. For the forecast, tradewinds have increased slightly overnight and will continue through Wed, with fresh winds pulsing to strong at night in the south-central and southeast portions. Moderate northerly swell will move through the Atlantic waters and NE Caribbean Passages today then gradually subside through Thu morning. A cold front is forecast to sink S-SE across the northwestern basin Wed and Wed night, reach from the Windward Passage to Belize on Thu, and then from the northern Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean along 16N Fri. Strong winds will follow the front, with Large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages through early Fri through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 994 mb low pressure is well offshore Cape Hatteras, NC and moving northeast, dragging a cold front through 31N71W to bear Ft Lauderdale, FL to the SW Gulf of Mexico. Active thunderstorms continue within 120 nm SE of the front between 71W and 79W, and also N of 30N. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring ahead of the front to 62W and north of 27N. Seas are 9 to 13 ft in this area. To the west of the front towards the coast of Florida, moderate to fresh NW winds prevail, along with 7 to 9 ft in NE swell. Weak high pressure ridging persists from the SE Bahamas eastward along 21N, yielding light to gentle anticyclonic winds south of 25N between 50W and the Bahamas. Seas are 8 ft or higher in N swell to the north of 20N between 55W and the SE Bahamas, and have recently reached the north coast of Puerto Rico. Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N37W to 20N60W. Scattered moderate convection is along the front, mainly N of 26N. For information on winds and waves near this front, see the Special Features section above. High pressure of 1026 mb centered near 35N20W is inducing fresh to strong NE winds from Morocco and Western Sahara to the Canary Islands, with seas of 6-9 ft. In the tropical Atlantic from about 07N to 18N between 30W and 60W, moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail, with seas of 6-8 ft in decaying N swell. For the forecast W of 55W, Large N swell behind the cold front across the eastern Atlantic will produce seas of 12 ft or greater N of 28N and E of 68W today then will subside Tue night through Wed. The cold front extending from 31N70W to near Ft Lauderdale, Florida will continue moving SE, reaching from 31N62W to NW Cuba Tue evening, from near 30N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds immediately behind the front will move through the Bahamas Wed night, and then shift across the SE waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu and Thu night. Yet another cold front is expected to move off Florida this weekend, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri night through Sat. $$ Stripling