191 AXNT20 KNHC 131054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Mar 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N48W and continues southwestward to 24N60W then to near 23N70W, where it have begun to dissipate. Gale-force SW winds are within 180 nm E of the front and N of 29N, where seas are 13 to 17 ft in westerly swell. Behind the front, gale-force westerly winds prevail to the N of 30N between the front and 56W. Large NW swell trailing the front is producing seas of 16 to 23 ft across this area. Fresh to strong winds extend southward to 25N E of the front and to 27N behind the front. and eastward to 44W. Numerous showers with some moderate thunderstorms are within 180 nm ahead of the front affecting mainly across the waters N of 24N. The active weather is expected to shift eastward with the front through this afternoon as the front moves quickly eastward across the waters N of 27N. Gale-force winds are expected to lift N of 31N and the discussion area by sunrise, leaving strong winds to near 30 kt and large seas prevailing on both sides of the front. Seas of 12 ft and greater will spread SE to 23N by afternoon, while peak seas near 24 ft are expected to reach along 31N this morning behind the front. Seas of 12 ft and greater will shift SE through Tue night and finally lift out to the NE of the area along 35W late Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale event and associated large swell. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, then continues SW to near 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to the equator at 28W to near the coast of NE Brazil near 03.5S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 03W and 16W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted from 02.5N to 03.5S between 17W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening ridge dominates most of the Gulf waters, producing moderate to fresh S to SW winds E of 90W. Gentle S winds prevail for the SW and west-central Gulf. The latest buoy and altimeter data show seas of 3 to 5 ft across this area. A cold front has entered the northern Gulf overnight, and extends from the western Florida Panhandle to just south of Brownsville, Texas. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the front across the Florida coastal waters extending into the Big Bend. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are building in behind the front, and have raised seas to 5-7 ft across the Texas coastal waters. For the forecast, the cold front will sink gradually southward through Tue morning, reaching extreme SW Florida to near Tampico, Mexico, then exit SE of the basin on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected N of the front Mon through Wed. Strong southerly winds will develop over the W and NW Gulf on Thu ahead of the next approaching cold front forecast to move into the NW Gulf early Fri. This front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Fri night. Gale force winds are possible west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Fri evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fair and stable conditions prevail across the Caribbean basin this morning, with patchy low clouds and a few showers possible across W and NW portions. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail across the basin S of 14N and E of 80W, while fresh to locally strong SE winds are W of 82W, and opening up into the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 4-6 ft across the southern Caribbean and 4-7 ft NW portions. Moderate N-NE swell continues to enter the NE Caribbean Passages, yielding seas of 4-6 ft there. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern is yielding below normal tradewinds across most of the basin. Tradewinds will increase Mon night through Wed. New northerly swell will reach the Atlantic waters early Tue and move through the NE Caribbean Passages. Fresh to strong ESE winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras through Tue morning. A cold front is forecast to sink S-SE across the northwestern basin Wed, reach from the Windward Passage to northern Gulf of Honduras Thu, and from the northern Leeward Islands to NE coast of Honduras Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N48W and continues southwestward to 24N60W then to near 23N70W. Gale force winds are on either side of the front north of 29N. Please see the Special Features section for more details. W of 55W, gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the front, Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell S of the front, and build to 12 ft and higher N of the front as discussed above. A front has stalled across the eastern Atlantic and extends from 31N22W to 23N40W. Large northerly swell generated well north of the area in recent days continues to spread across most of the regional Atlantic waters from 05N to 27N between and E of 55W with seas in the 6 to 10 ft range. Seas directly behind the front are currently 8 to 10 ft E of 40W. A weak ridge resides SE of the front and is producing moderate to fresh NE trades across the tropical Atlantic. 1005 mb low pressure is moving NE and exiting the coasts of North and South Carolina, while dragging the Gulf of Mexico Cold front across SE Georgia. Strong S to SW winds prevail across the offshore waters of N and central Florida and extend to 74W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across these waters in residual NE swell. Large clusters of moderate isolated strong convection prevail N of 29N from Florida eastward to 72W. Weak high pressure persists to the E of the Bahamas yielding light to gentle anticyclonic winds between 60W and 72W. Seas are 5-7 ft in NE swell from the Bahamas northeastward, then increase to 8-12 ft farther NE. For the forecast W of 55W, a weakening cold front extending from near 26N55W to the southeast Bahamas and will stall and dissipate W of 60W later today. Large seas in northerly swell will prevail behind the front today through Tue, with seas N of 24N remaining 10 ft and higher through tonight. Another cold front will enter the far NW waters today, then continue SE, reaching the NW Bahamas Tue morning, from near 28N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 21N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning. $$ Stripling