000 AXNT20 KNHC 130553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Mar 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING and HIGH SEAS: Gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 15 feet, are forecast from 29N northward between 47W and 54W. A second area of gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 15 feet to 23 feet, are forecast from 29N northward between 54W and 62W. A cold front passes through 31N52W to 25N60W, 23N70W. A surface trough continues from 23N70W, to 23N77W in the Bahamas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the SE of the cold front from 24N59W northeastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W westward. Strong and faster cyclonic wind flow is to the north of the line: 31N41W 24N54W 28N63W 31N67W. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind is in the remainder of the area that is from 21N northward between 47W and 70W. Gentle anticyclonic breezes are within 200 nm on either side of the line: from 18N63W to 19N50W 24N38W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 32N28W. The sea heights have been ranging from 9 feet to 16 feet from 24N northward between the cold front and 70W. The comparatively highest sea height is 18 feet from 30N to 31N between 58W and 59W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet from 17N to 25N from 45W westward. A warm front is from 31N northward from 70W westward. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet from the surface trough and the Bahamas northward from 70W westward. Strong southerly winds and faster, are from 29N northward from 74W westward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere from 24N northward from 73W westward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W, to 04N20W, crossing the Equator along 29W, to 03S39W off the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary and a surface trough are in the coastal waters and in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., in the northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary is between the Florida Panhandle and the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 29N northward from 84W eastward, into north Florida. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 60 nm to 90 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf of Mexico coast from 26N northward. Strong northerly winds are in the coastal waters between SE Louisiana and the upper Texas coast. Fresh to strong SE winds are off the coast of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Mostly moderate anticyclonic wind flow is in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging mostly from 2 feet to 4 feet, with the possibility of still 5 feet in the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A weak Atlantic high pressure ridge extends westward through the Straits of Florida to the central Gulf along 25N, and will produce moderate to fresh southerly flow across the basin. A cold front is entering the northern Gulf tonight, and will sink gradually southward through Tue, and exit the basin on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected N of the front Mon through Wed. Strong southerly winds will develop over the W and NW Gulf on Thu ahead of the next approaching cold front forecast to move into the NW Gulf early Fri. This front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Fri night. Gale force winds are possible west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge passes through 18N60W, to Hispaniola, to the Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one-third of the area, and within 300 nm of the coast of NW Venezuela. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from 15N to 20N from 80W westward. The sea heights have been ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Patches of low level moisture and isolated passing rainshowers are embedded in the trade wind flow. Strong NE winds are within 45 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 76W. Fresh NE winds are within 200 nm of the coast of Colombia between 70W and 77W. Moderate easterly winds are elsewhere within 360 nm of the coast of Colombia between 70W and 80W. Mostly moderate and some fresh NE winds are from 16N southward between 56W and 66W. Strong SE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Honduras from 87W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A weak pressure pattern is yielding below normal trade winds across the basin. Trade winds will increase Mon night through Wed. Large northerly swell impacting the regional Atlantic waters, including passages of the NE Caribbean, will subside gradually through early Mon. New northerly swell will arrive Tue. Fresh to strong ESE winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern basin early Wed, and reach from the Windward Passage to northern Gulf of Honduras on Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ongoing GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, and the SEA HEIGHTS, that are in the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front is along 31N23W 27N30W 23N40W. Fresh NE winds are from 15N southward between 40W and 53W. Fresh NE winds are within 280 nm on either side of the line 22N22W 13N39W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet within 600 nm to 750 nm on either side of the line 30N14W 21N28W 18N37W 08N57W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, from 50W eastward. A cold front extends from near 29N55W to the central Bahamas. The front will move ESE through Mon and reach along 23N, and dissipate W of 60W. Gale-force W winds will prevail behind the front N of 30N and E of 62W tonight. Moderate N to NE swell currently dominating the regional waters will subside gradually through tonight S of 25N, while seas N of 25N will remain 10 ft and higher through early next week. Another cold front will enter the far NW waters Mon, then continue SE, reaching the NW Bahamas Tue morning, and from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage by Thu morning. $$ mt