000 AXNT20 KNHC 121000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Mar 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N61W and continues southwestward to the central Bahamas and then westward to the Florida Keys. Gale force SW winds are ahead of the front N of 28N to about 54W. Fresh to strong SW winds extend S to 25N. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front affecting mainly the waters N of 25.5N between the front and 54W. Gale-force westerly winds are behind the front to the N of 30N, with strong NW to W winds extending southward to 27N. Seas N of 26N are 12 to 16 ft ahead of the front and 12 to 18 ft behind the front. The active weather is expected to shift eastward with the front through Sun. The cold front will move quickly E-SE and and drag the front from near 28N55W to the southern Bahamas by Sun evening, then dissipate W of 65W by Mon as the gales lift N of the area. Moderate to large N to NE swell currently dominating the regional waters will gradually subside into Mon to the S of 25N, while seas remain 10 ft and higher to the N of 25N as the frontal system sweeps across the northern waters. Central Atlantic Significant Seas: A cold front extends from 31N26W to 20N45W. A frontal trough continues from 20N44W to 14N58W. Large northerly swell generated well north of the area in recent days continue to spread across most of the regional Atlantic waters E of 75W this morning. Seas directly behind the front are currently 12 to 14 ft N of 25N and extend westward to 48W. The swell from this event will gradually subside through the weekend, with winds/seas subsiding below 12 ft late Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale and swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through coastal Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 03.5N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N16W to the equator at 28W then continues to coastal Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03.5N and E of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front has moved northward and inland across Alabama and northern Florida, while the tail of a cold front extends across the Florida Keys to the Dry Tortugas. A weak ridge persists south of the front and extends WNW to the central Gulf, producing moderate southerly winds to the W of 92W. A broad upper ridge is inducing fair weather across the Gulf, with skies mostly cloud free, except for smoke across the nearshore waters of Mexico. Seas are generally in the 1 to 3 ft range, except 4 to 5 ft across NW portions. For the forecast, the weak high pressure ridge over the extreme SE Gulf will shift E of the Bahamas through Mon to produce moderate to fresh southerly flow across most of the basin. A cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf Sun night, then sink gradually southward through Tue, and exit the basin to the SE on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected N of this front Mon through Wed. Strong southerly winds will develop W and NW portions on Thu ahead of the next approaching cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers, more concentrated over Haiti and offshore of Cuba, and across SE portions. Otherwise fair weather dominates the basin. Gentle to moderate trades prevail E of 80W, while fresh to locally strong SE winds are across the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range across most of the central and eastern Caribbean, except 6- 8 ft in N-NE swell across the Mona and Anegada Passages. Seas of 1 to 3 ft dominates the NW part of the basin. For the forecast, the weak high pressure ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW to eastern Cuba this morning is yielding a below normal tradewind pattern across the basin. More typical tradewinds will return Mon night through Wed. Large northerly swell impacting the regional Atlantic waters, including passages of the NE Caribbean, will gradually subside through early Mon, then new northerly swell will arrive Tue. Fresh to strong ESE winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Tue morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern basin early Wed, and reach from the Windward Passage to northern Gulf of Honduras Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N61W and continues southwestward across the central Bahamas to the Florida Keys. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N26W to 20N46W. 1018 mb high pressure is centered between the two boundaries near 28N40W. Please read the Special Features section for details on winds and seas these two features are producing. Large N to NE swell continues to reach the north coasts of the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands, where seas are 7-9 ft. A 1023 mb high pressure located NE of the Madeira Islands, anchors a ridge extending SW into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are over the Cabo Verde Islands with fresh NE winds extending across the tropical Atlantic S of 18N. Seas there are 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front through the Bahamas to the Florida Keys will continue to move quickly ESE across the northern waters, and drag the front from near 28N55W to the southern Bahamas by Sun evening, then dissipate. During this time, gale-force SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front, N of 28.5N, and W gales behind the front N of 30N and E of 67W. Moderate to large N to NE swell currently dominating the regional waters will gradually subside through Sun night to the S of 25N, while seas to the N of 25N will remain 10 ft and higher through early next week. Another cold front will enter the far NW waters Mon, then continue SE, reaching the NW Bahamas Tue morning, and from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage by Thu morning. $$ Stripling