000 AXNT20 KNHC 101656 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N35W to the Leeward Islands. Strong NW to W winds behind the front prevail north of 25N. These winds will shift eastward through this evening and strengthen to gale force N of 29N, then gradually lift north of the area Sat morning. Currently, seas up to 17 ft are found ahead and behind the frontal boundary. Large NW to N swell producing very rough seas covers the majority of the west and central subtropical North Atlantic. Seas in excess of 12 ft are currently observed between 27W and 70W, reaching as far south as 21N. Seas in the area of gale force winds will build to 18 ft by this evening. The swell from this event will continue to propagate SE and gradually abate through the weekend. SW Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the offshore waters of the SE United States this afternoon and move eastward over the next few days. A strengthening low pressure system north of the area and tightening pressure gradient will support strong to near gale force winds ahead and behind the frontal boundary, mainly north of 25N. Gale force winds will develop ahead of the frontal boundary early Sat morning through Sun, primarily north of 28N. Seas will quickly build to near 13 ft Sat ahead of the front and to near 23 ft by Sun behind the front. Seas greater than 12 ft will remain north of 25N. Winds and seas will abate early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale and swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 02N35W to 01N50W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is entering the NW Gulf of Mexico waters, but there is no deep convection associated with this boundary. Overall, a weak high pressure regime dominates the basin maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Light to locally strong anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, a cold front moving across northern Florida and the Big Bend Area will cause moderate northerly winds at the northeastern Gulf through tonight. Another cold front is forecast to approach the northern Gulf late Sat night and Sun, inducing moderate southerly flow across the entire Gulf. It should enter the northern Gulf Sun night, then sinks southward through Tue. In response, fresh to strong with locally near-gale northerly winds are expected behind the front for much of the Gulf. Gale winds are possible at the central and southeastern Gulf. This front is going to move southeast of the region near midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating cold front extends from just south of Hispaniola to the Leeward Islands. No deep convection is associated with this feature. In the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, except for a few shallow patches of moisture, relatively dry air dominates. A weak pressure gradient sustains light to moderate easterly winds across the basin, with the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia, south of Hispaniola and Cuba and the Windward Passage. Seas in the 3-6 ft range prevail across the Caribbean. For the forecast, a cold front extends southwestward from near the central Azores across 31N34W and the Leeward Islands into the northeastern Caribbean Sea. It will continue to sink southward through tonight and gradually dissipate Sat. Large NW to N swell accompanying the front will dominate the regional Atlantic waters and move through the NE Caribbean passages through Sat then gradually subside Sun through Mon. Gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin for remainder of the forecast period, except for moderate to fresh winds in the southeastern and south- central Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Mon morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast waters this week. A cold front extends from 31N35W to the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen ahead of the frontal boundary, north of 24N and west of 33W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are evident on scatterometer satellite wind data ahead of the cold front, north of 20N and west of 30W. Fresh to strong westerly winds are also present behind the frontal boundary, mainly north of 23N and east of 68W. Seas are 10-17 ft in the areas described, with the highest seas occurring near 27N57W and 31N35W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient is increasing off NE Florida as a low pressure and frontal boundary approaches the region, resulting in moderate to fresh southwest winds north of 29N and west of 77W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Light to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the tropical Atlantic due to an expansive subtropical ridge. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold fornt extends southwestward from near the central Azores across 31N35W through the Leeward Islands. It will continue to sink southward through tonight and weaken. Fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 25N and E of 70W will increase to strong to gale-force as they shift to the northeast forecast waters Fri afternoon through night. Large NW to N swell in the wake of the front is producing seas of 12-17 ft to the N of 20N and E of about 73W early this morning, and will dominate regional waters through Sat night before beginning to slowly subside. The next cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. coast by Fri evening, bringing strong to near gale-force SW to W winds ahead of it to waters east of Florida. This front will move eastward across the area during the weekend, with minimal gale- force winds expected ahead of the front Sat through Sun, with gales developing behind the front early Sun through early Mon. Yet another cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast early Mon and reach from near 31N63W through the central Bahamas by late Tue. $$ DELGADO