870 AXNT20 KNHC 101029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Mar 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Developing Gale Warning and Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N36W to Antigua early this morning. Gale force SW winds east of the front and north of 28N earlier tonight have shifted N of the area. Seas are peaking at 18 ft behind the front near 30N59W. Large NW to N swell producing very rough seas covers the majority of the west and central subtropical North Atlantic. Seas in excess of 12 ft are currently observed between 30W and 73W, reaching as far south as 19N. The swell from this event will continue to propagate SE and gradually abate through the weekend. Strong NW to W winds behind the front prevail north of 24N this morning. These winds will shift eastward through this evening and strengthen to gale force N of 28N, then gradually lift north of the area Sat morning. Seas in the area of gale force winds will peak at 15 to 20 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale and swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03.5N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N15W to 00N40W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along and south of the trough to 03N between 00W and 12W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05S to 03N between 17W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula has begun to shift westward of the peninsula and into the immediate coastal waters of the Bay of Campeche. Fresh E to NE winds prevail across this area to 93W. High pressure prevails across the remainder of the Gulf waters with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas are 1-3 ft across the central Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure along the Carolina coasts extends weakly SW into the central Gulf early this morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf waters this evening, and reach from near Tampa Bay to NW Gulf early on Sat, then dissipate by Sat evening. The next cold front will likely enter the NW Gulf Sun night into Mon. This front is forecast to reach the far southern Gulf Tue and move south of the Gulf Tue night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas to 10 ft or higher are expected immediately behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the central Atlantic W-SW across Antigua, and then westward across the far northern Caribbean, disrupting the normal pressure gradient. Fresh N-NE winds are observed north of 17N, including the Windward and Mona Passages, lee of Cuba and over the waters NE of Jamaica. 6-9 ft swell is propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages. Winds are generally moderate with slight seas across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to sink southward tonight through Fri night and gradually dissipate. Large NW to N swell accompanying the front will dominate the regional Atlantic waters and move through the NE Caribbean passages through Sat then gradually subside through Mon. Gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin for remainder of the forecast period, except for moderate to fresh winds in the southeastern and south- central Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Mon morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast waters this week. A cold front extends from 31N36W to Antigua in the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong NW to N winds cover much of the discussion waters behind the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are observed within 250 nm ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Large seas in NW to N swell cover the majority of the subtropical Atlantic. Seas of 8 ft or greater are observed north of a line from 30N24W to 15N54W to 20N71W to 27N77W. Seas are 5-8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to sink southward through Fri night and weaken. Fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 25N and E of 70W will increase to strong to gale-force as they shift to the northeast forecast waters Fri afternoon through night. Large NW to N swell in the wake of the front is producing seas of 12-17 ft to the N of 20N and E of about 73W early this morning, and will dominate regional waters through Sat night before beginning to slowly subside. The next cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. coast by Fri evening, bringing strong to near gale-force SW to W winds ahead of it to waters east of Florida. This front will move eastward across the area during the weekend, with minimal gale-force winds expected ahead of the front Sat through Sun, with gales developing behind the front early Sun through early Mon. Yet another cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast early Mon and reach from near 31N63W through the central Bahamas by late Tue. $$ Stripling