000 AXNT20 KNHC 100354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Mar 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning and Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N38W to the Virgin Islands. Gale force winds remain within 90 nm east of the front and north of 28N. Seas are peaking at 18 ft near the frontal boundary. Very rough seas cover the majority of the west and central subtropical North Atlantic. Seas in excess of 12 ft are currently observed between 30W and 70W, reaching as far south as 20N. Winds are expected to decrease below gale force early Fri. The swell from this event will continue to propagate SE and gradually abate through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale and swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 90 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough has developed along the Yucatan Peninsula, generating a fresh breeze in the eastern Bay of Campeche. High pressure prevails across the remainder of the Gulf waters with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas are 1-3 ft across the central Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure along the Carolina coasts extends weakly SW into the central Gulf tonight. A cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf region Fri, and move over the northern Gulf waters by Fri night, reaching from near Tampa Bay to NW Gulf early on Sat, then dissipate by early Sat evening. The next cold front will likely enter the NW Gulf Sun night into Mon. This front is forecast to reach the far southern Gulf Tue and exit the Gulf Tue evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across the far northern Caribbean, disrupting the normal pressure gradient. Fresh N-NE winds are observed north of 17N, including the Windward and Mona Passages, lee of Cuba and over the waters NE of Jamaica. 6-9 ft swell is propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages. Winds are generally moderate with slight seas across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to sink southward tonight through Fri night and gradually dissipate. Large NW to N swell accompanying the front will dominate the regional Atlantic waters and move through the NE Caribbean passages through late Fri then gradually subside. Gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin for remainder of the forecast period, except for moderate to fresh winds in the southeastern and south- central Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Mon morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast waters this week. A cold front extends from 31N38W to the Virgin Islands. Aside from the gale force winds, moderate to strong NW winds cover much of the discussion waters behind the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are observed within 300 nm ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Rough seas cover the majority of the subtropical Atlantic. Seas of 8 ft or greater are observed north of a line from 31N23W to 16N50W to 20N70W to 31N75W. Seas are 5-8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to sink southward through Fri night and weaken. Fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 25N and E of 70W will increase to strong to near gale- force as they shift to the northeast forecast waters by Fri afternoon. Large NW to N swell in the wake of the front is producing seas of 12-17 ft to the N of 20N and E of about 72W tonight, and will dominate regional waters through Fri night before beginning to subside. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. coast by Fri afternoon, bringing strong to near gale-force SW to W winds ahead of it to waters east of Florida. This front will move eastward across the area during the weekend, with minimal gale- force winds possible ahead of the front. Yet another cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sun night and reach from near 31N68W to eastern Cuba by late Tue. $$ Flynn