000 AXNT20 KNHC 072101 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A cold front will move south of 31N by early this evening, then extend from 31N53W to 26N70W to 28.5N81W by Wed morning. Gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front tonight into Wed north of 27N and east of 68W to 40W. The gales will continue eastward Wed night through Thu between 55W and 35W. This front will send large NW to N swell spreading across Atlantic waters tonight through Thu night. Seas will reach over 20 ft on Wed north of 29N between 48W and 59W. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Events: NW swell, with seas greater than 12 ft, is over waters N of 26N between 28W and 62W, with highest seas around 15 ft near 31N56W. The swell will be reinforced by a new set of NW to N swell, associated with the cold front described above, which will move into the area this evening. Swell in excess of 12 ft will propagate as far south as 20N by Thu, impacting waters east of the Bahamas to the central Atlantic. The swell will also impact the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale and swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 05S E of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the western Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range over the western Gulf and 1-2 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will dominate the area through Wed. A cold front will enter the NE Gulf on Wed morning, and extend from the lower Florida Keys to near Mobile, Alabama on Thu morning while dissipating. Another weak cold front could reach the northern Gulf Coast Fri or Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trades will persist near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere tonight and Wed. The pressure gradient will weaken across the basin on Wed as an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the Caribbean islands. The cold front is forecast to reach the Greater Antilles on Thu. The front will bring large N swell through the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu and lasting into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning and significant swell events impacting the Atlantic forecast waters this week. A cold front extends from 31N32W to 22N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front N of 27N. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 29N between 45W and 60W, and within 60 nm E of the front and N of 29N. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of 27N W of the front to 60W, and within 60 nm east of the front. Moderate winds are noted east of 30W as well as S of 10N. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft or greater seas, seas greater than 8 ft are over the waters N of 23N between 25W and 65W as well as E of 30W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft are noted. For the forecast W of 55W, westerly winds will begin to increase across the waters N of 29N by early this evening ahead of another cold front forecast enter the forecast region at same time. The front will reach from 31N53W to the NW Bahamas and central Florida by Wed morning, extending across the Greater Antilles by Thu morning. Gale force winds are expected on either side of the front early this evening, mainly N of 29N between 55W and 65W. Wind are forecast to diminish below gale force over the NE waters by late Wed morning, but strong NW winds will persist. A significant NW to N swell event will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 20 ft covering most of the waters N of 25N and E of 74W by early Wed afternoon. Seas of 12 ft will reach as far south as 22N by early Thu morning. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to move off the southeast U.S. coast by Fri night, bringing strong winds to waters east of Florida. $$ AL