000 AXNT20 KNHC 071027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The next cold front will move south of 31N by early this evening, then extend from 31N53W to 26N70W to 28.5N81W by Wed morning. Gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front tonight into Wed north of 27N and east of 68W to 40W. The gales will continue eastward Wed night through Thu between 55W and 35W. This front will send large NW to N swell spreading across Atlantic waters tonight through Thu night. Seas will reach over 20 ft on Wed north of 29N between 48W and 59W. Atlantic Significant Swell Events: Prior to the event described above, long-period NW swell over 12 ft is affecting waters N of 26N between 33W and 63W, with highest seas around 16 ft near 31N49W. The swell will be reinforced by a new set of NW to N swell, associated with the cold front described above, which will move into the area this evening. Swell in excess of 12 ft will propagate as far south as 20N by Thu, impacting waters east of the Bahamas to the central Atlantic. The swell will also impact the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale and swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 0.5N25W to 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from the Equator to 07N between 08W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 03N between 27W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1018 mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf continues to bring rather quiescent conditions to the basin, with gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas. The exception is the eastern Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal trough is bringing moderate E winds and 2-4 ft seas. Areas of dense marine fog have been observed this morning within 20 nm of the coast of SW Louisiana through the middle Texas coast. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will dominate the area through Wed. A cold front will enter the NE Gulf on Wed morning, and extend from the lower Florida Keys to near Mobile, Alabama on Thu morning while dissipating. Another weak cold front could reach the northern Gulf Coast Fri or Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Winds are generally moderate across the basin with 4-6 ft seas, except 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are observed over the south-central Caribbean, within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, where seas are 6-9 ft. For the forecast, moderate trades will prevail for much of the basin today, except for fresh to locally strong in the south- central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will weaken today through Wed as an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean islands. The cold front is forecast to reach the Greater Antilles on Thu. The front will bring large N swell through the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu and lasting into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning and significant swell events impacting the Atlantic forecast waters this week. High pressure prevails over the western Atlantic, anchored by a 1018 mb high near 29N73W. A cold front extends from 31N35W to 24N50W to 23.5N63W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front N of 27N and E of 41W. Fresh to strong SW winds are within 90 nm east of the front N of 27N and E of 43W. Fresh to strong W winds are west of the front to 62W and N of 29N. Seas in the 12-16 ft range are over these waters and discussed in the special features section above. A surface ridge extends across the basin from the Canary Islands to 20N45W to 22N65W to 29N73W. Light to gentle winds are present within 240 nm either side of the surface ridge axis. Moderate trades prevail S of 10N between 35W-60W. Seas are 8 ft or greater N of 24N between 35W and 65W as well as from 11N to 25N between 15W and 35W. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted over the waters N of the Greater Antilles to 23N, with seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere over the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 23N55W to 23.5N63W will become stationary and dissipate by tonight. Large NW to N swell will continue to affect the NE waters through today. A second cold front will enter the area by early this evening and reach from 30N55W to 26N70W to 28.5N81W by Wed morning. Gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front tonight into Wed N of 28N and E of 70W. Behind the front, NW winds will remain fresh to strong through late week. A significant NW to N swell event will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 20 ft covering most of the waters N of 25N and E of 74W by early Wed afternoon. Swell up to 12 ft will reach as far south as 21N by early Thu. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to move off the southeast U.S. coast by Fri night, brining strong winds to waters east of Florida. $$ Hagen