000 AXNT20 KNHC 061629 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Mar 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The next cold front will move south of 31N late Tue, then extend from 31N61W to 28N74W to 29.5N80W late Tue night, and reach from 31N55W to 25N73W by early Wed. Gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front Tue night into Wed north of 27N and east of 68W. The gales will continue eastward late Wed into early Thu between 50W and 35W. This front will send large N swell spreading across Atlantic waters Tue night through Thu night. Seas will reach over 20 ft on Wed north of 30N between 49W and 61W. Atlantic Significant Swell Events: Prior to the event described above, we currently have long-period NW swell propagating through the central and eastern waters generating seas in the range of 12 to 17 ft north of 26N and between 22W and 62W with a period of 12 to 14 seconds. The swell will not subside much before a larger and more powerful NW to N swell, associated with the cold front described above, moves into the area late Tue. Swell in excess of 12 ft will propagate as far south as 20N by Thu, impacting waters east of the Bahamas to the central Atlantic. The swell will also impact the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale and swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N southward and east of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... No significant convection is found across the basin as weak high pressure dominates the area. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail with seas ranging 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the area early this week, before shifting away, allowing a weak cold front to enter the NE Gulf late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong E to NE winds are captured in a recent scatterometer pass in the south-central Caribbean south of 14N to the Colombian coast between 72W and 78W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the Colombian Basin as a result of these winds. Elsewhere, generally moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the basin with 5 to 7 ft seas, except in the NW Caribbean, where winds are gentle and seas are slight. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Winds will gradually diminish to below normal basin-wide Tue through Wed night as an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean islands. The cold front is forecast to pass through Puerto Rico and the NE Caribbean Thu. The front will bring large N swell through the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu and lasting into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning and significant swell events impacting the Atlantic forecast waters this week. A cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N55W to 27N70W. Although convection is gradually diminishing, an isolated shower is possible within 100 nm ahead of the front north of 30N. Fresh to strong NW winds with 12 to 19 ft seas are found behind the front, while fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 10 to 15 ft are found ahead of the front, mainly east of 52W. A high-pressure ridge extends across the basin from the Canary Islands near 29N15W to 22N67W to South Florida. Winds are light within the ridge axis, although swell associated with storms north of the area is continuing to propagate through these latitudes in the central Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, a remnant trough extends from 30N26W to 25N35W. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate near the boundary, though seas of 12 to 14 ft embedded in large NW swell are likely still occurring there. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will move southeast through today, extending along 24N and east of 70W by this evening. Fresh to strong W to NW winds in the wake of the front will affect the northeast waters today and tonight. South of the front a ridge prevail. The ridge will weaken and reform northeast of the Bahamas into Tue as the front dissipates. Large NW swell will impact the northeast waters behind the front through Tue. A second cold front will enter the area late Tue, and reach from 31N55W to 25N73W by early Wed. Gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front Tue night into Wed north of 27N and east of 68W. This front will send large N swell spreading across all Atlantic waters Tue night through Thu night. Seas will reach over 20 ft on Wed north of 30N and east of 62W. $$ Nepaul