000
AXNT20 KNHC 031612
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas of 12 to 14 ft in long 
period N swell continue to affect the waters N of 28N and between
27W and 43W. Seas are forecast to gradually subside below 12 ft 
by tonight. However, another swell event will enter the forecast 
waters by Sat afternoon with seas building to 12 to 18 ft N of 27N
and E of 55W. This swell event will gradually abate and shift E 
of 40W by Sun evening. A third swell event will reach the forecast
region late Sun into Mon with seas in the 12 to 18 ft range 
propagating across the waters N of 27N between 35W and 63W. These 
swell events are the result of several storm to hurricane force
low pressure systems moving eastward across the Atlantic Ocean N 
of the forecast area.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches across the
western Gulf of Mexico from Vermilion Bay, LA near 30N92W to south
of Tampico, Mexico near 21.5N98W. Gale force winds are active on 
both sides of the front. A small area of gale force northerly 
winds are following the front along the Mexican offshore waters. A
few buoys are reporting sustained gale force S-SW winds ahead of 
the front, embedded in a large area of strong to near gale force 
winds that dominate the majority of the basin east of the front 
and north of 23N. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to 
the central Bay of Campeche this evening, before stalling on Sat. 
Gale force gusts across the Gulf of Mexico will end by late this 
evening. Winds and seas will subside by Sat afternoon. Benign 
winds and seas will then continue into early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 09N13W, then continues southwestward to 05N18W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted S of 01N between 30W-47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read 
the Special Features section above for details.

A cold front extends across the NW gulf from 30N92W to 21.5N98W. 
A distinct wind direction shift is noted across the front with 
N-NW winds behind and S-SW winds ahead. Terrain enhanced gale 
force winds are noted offshore near Tampico, Mexico. A surface 
ridge prevails across the eastern portion of the basin. The 
pressure gradient between these features supports a large area of 
strong to gale S-SE winds across the eastern 2/3 of the basin, 
with seas of 8 to 12 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front will continue moving east across
the basin producing winds to gale force and seas to 12 ft. 
Please, see the Special Features section above for more 
information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between ridging high pressure from the central
Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting
fresh to strong easterly winds in the central Caribbean and
similar strength SE winds in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf
of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted over the remainder of the basin. Seas are 8-11 ft over the 
south-central Caribbean and 8-10 ft in the far NW Caribbean. Seas 
are generally 5-8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the Colombian diurnal low will support 
strong trades across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong to 
near-gale SE winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean west of 82W 
and north of 16N, including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan 
Channel, through tonight. Moderate long-period N swell will impact
the northeastern Caribbean passages through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the 
ongoing significant swell event, and the systems supporting 
these marine conditions.

High pressure of 1021 mb centered over the central subtropical 
Atlantic extends a ridge across the western Atlantic. Fresh to 
strong southerly winds are observed along the western periphery of
this ridge along the Florida offshore waters. Seas are currently 
4-6 ft and building in this area. In the central Atlantic, a 
recent scatterometer pass found similar strength SW winds north of
29N, between 47W and 64W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N30W to
22N52W. Some shower activity is observed within 240 nm ahead of
the front, north of 25N. High pressure near the Canary Islands
dominates the remainder of the eastern Atlantic, though large
swell continues to propagate in from strong storms in the north 
central Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging extends eastward 
from the Bahamas across the central Atlantic. Fresh southerly 
winds east of Florida will increase to strong today through 
tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to exit the U.S. southeast 
coast late tonight. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will 
progress eastward this weekend ahead of the front, remaining north
of 29N as the surface ridge settles along 24N. 

$$
Flynn