000 AXNT20 KNHC 010536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across Bermuda, just ahead of a second, reinforcing front. The fronts will merge and move across the waters north of 25N west of 55W through Thu night. Strong to near-gale force winds will accompany the front, and winds may reach minimal gale force north of 30N between 40W and 50W tonight through Thu morning. Please see the paragraph below for details on wave heights. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Recent altimeter satellite data indicates wave heights in excess of 12 ft mainly north of 26N and east of 55W, reaching as high as 20 ft near 31N45W. The large waves are related in part to successive groups of long-period NW swell associated with deep low pressure system well north of the area. Wave heights in excess of 8 ft are reaching through the tropical Atlantic, east of 55W. Shorter- period wind seas will mix with the NW swell north of 30N between 40W and 50W tonight, with combined seas reaching as high 20 ft in that area. Expect seas in excess of 12 ft to persist north of 28N east of 55W to the Canary Islands into Fri. Looking ahead, seas will subside slight thereafter, but another round of NW swell can be expect Sat and Sun north of 28N between 25W and 50W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N15W southwestward to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 02S40W. is analyzed south of the Equator. No significant thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging extends from 1018 mb high pressure centered over the southeast Gulf to the northwest Gulf. A trough reaches from the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to the south-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to E winds are evident off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near the trough, where waves are estimated to be 3 to 4 ft. Light breezes with waves 2 ft or less are evident in the southeast Gulf, with gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft waves elsewhere. Areas of sea fog are noted over the northern Gulf, with a dense fog advisory in effect near Houston. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh over the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse tonight and Wed night near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf late Thu night and Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force across the northern Gulf. Both winds and seas should gradually subside across the Gulf this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on an upcoming gale event. The pressure gradient across the basin associated with high pressure centered over the Bahamas is interacting with local effects to support a couple of areas of fresh to strong winds in the Caribbean. A recent scatterometer passes indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds off central Colombia, where wave heights are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft. The satellite data also showed fresh to strong NE to E winds off central Honduras, where wave heights are near 4 ft. Gentle to moderate to E to SE winds are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft waves, except 2 to 4 ft waves over the northwest Caribbean. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean through Sat. These winds will expand northward into the north- central basin on Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are likely Wed night and Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed. By Thu, these winds will become strong to near- gale force and spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long- period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages most of this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the an upcoming gale event and on an ongoing significant swell event. The subtropical ridge extends east to west from near the Canary Islands to 20N50W to the central Bahamas. Cold front are moving west to east across the waters north of the ridge, near 40W and 65W. As described in detail in the Special Features section, large long-period NW swell is noted mainly north of 26N and east of 55W. Wave heights in excess of 8 ft are evident mainly east of 55W, but also north of 26N between 55W and 75W. Light breezes are noted along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh trade winds south of the ridge, and strong to locally near-gale force winds north of the ridge near the cold fronts. For the forecast west of 55W, A cold front reaches extends southwestward from 31N35W to 25N46W and to 22N55W, where it becomes a weakening stationary front to 21N68W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front to near 29W and north of 26N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible within 120 nm SE of the front between 37W-42W. Behind this front, a dissipating cold front extends from near 31N40W to 28N48W and to 29N57W. No significant convection is noted with this front. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are behind the front to near 45W and north of 28N. Seas associated to both fronts are as described above under Special Features. Convergent trade winds are resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms northeast of Suriname-French Guiana coast from 05N to 10N between 47W-54W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. In the western part of the area, relatively weak high pressure is maintaining gentle W to NW winds along with seas of 5-7 ft seas north of 20N and between 53W-64W. Off the northeast Florida coast, fresh with locally strong west to southwesterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft continue eastward to 64W. In the far eastern part of the area, gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds along with seas of 10-16 ft in large NW swell are over the waters north of 18N between the African coast and 29W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 6-9 ft in N to NE swell are seen from 09N to 18N between the central African coast and 37W. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE to S-SW winds along with seas of 7-10 ft are present from 05N to 20N between 37W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft are over the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas will persist east of 63W through Thu. A cold front will shift into the northern waters tonight, with fresh to strong westerly winds and building seas. This boundary will also produce strong to near- gale westerly winds and higher seas north of 28N across the western Atlantic waters through Wed. Another cold front is forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast on Fri, bringing another round of increasing winds and seas off Florida and near northwest Bahamas. $$ Christensen