000 AXNT20 KNHC 281724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front has exited the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. this morning. The southwestern portion of this front will move eastward across the western and central Atlantic through Thu night. Expect strong to near-gale westerly winds to the north of 29N to shift eastward, from off the northeast Florida coast eastward to 55W. Some of these winds will reach gale-force between 53W and 40W late Wed afternoon and Wed night. Combined seas will peak between 17 and 20 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large to very large NW swell persists across the Atlantic waters, mainly north of 11N between 20W and 60W, with wave periods of 12 to 16 seconds. The swell was generated by a series of strong low pressure systems well north of the area that have been moving west to east across the north-central Atlantic, producing up to hurricane force winds. Recent altimeter satellite data indicates the maximum heights south of 31N have subsided to 16-18 ft as the swell decays, but also that the extent of swell in excess of 8 ft has spread as far south as 12N. Shorter-period, wind-driven seas associated with strong to near-gale force winds are mixing with the swell, north of 25N between 35W and 55W. Reinforcing swell is expected to move south of 31N and east of 55W by Wed, associated with another low pressure system well north of the area moving across the central Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Caribbean Gale Warning: A 1019 mb high just NE of the southeast Bahamas is going to strengthen and build eastward through Fri. This will tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure across northwestern Colombia. Anticipate strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds just north of the Colombia coast through Fri, peaking at gale-force on Wed night and possibly Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends southwestward across the Guinea near 10N14W to 03N19W to 01.5N25W. The ITCZ then continues westward from 01N28W through 02N37W to coastal Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen about portions of the trough and ITCZ, from 00N to 03.5N between 22W and 44W. Other scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09.5N between 47W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fair weather prevails across the Gulf basin this morning, as it resides under the western portion of a low to middle level ridge. At the surface, a modest surface ridge extends westward from the western subtropical Atlantic through the Florida Straits to the Texas coast. Low pressure resides from far western Texas S-SE across eastern Mexico to the coast near Veracruz. No significant weather is seen near this feature. Areas of fog persist late in the morning across the nearshore waters from SE Texas to central Louisiana, as southerly winds blow across the cooler waters near the coast. Moderate with locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present across the south-central and northwest Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the current ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh over the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf on Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on an up- coming gale event. A 1019 mb high is centered east of the central Bahamas along about 69W. The associated E to W ridge continues to support a relatively moderate trade wind pattern for the entire basin. Mild trade wind showers are found in an elongated low level convergence zone from 14.5N to 18N and extending from the Lesser Antilles to 80W. Fresh to locally strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present across the south-central basin, while similar SE winds are present across the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle ESE to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, he pressure gradient between high pressure just north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat. These winds will expand northward into the north-central basin on Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are likely Wed night and Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed. By Thu, these winds will become strong to near-gale force and spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages most of this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the an upcoming gale event and a significant swell event. A cold front reaches southwestward from complex low pressure across the N central Atlantic, through 31N45W to 29N55W. Patches of light to moderate showers are occurring near and up to 90 nm south of this feature. Another cold front lies to the southeast of this front, and curves southwestward from near the Azores across 31N35W to 25N48W, then continues west-southwestward as a stationary front to 23N62W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 120 nm southeast of the cold front to the north of 22N. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms northeast of Suriname-French Guiana coast from 05N to 09.5N between 47W and 55W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Morning satellite scatterometer data suggest fresh to strong S to SW winds are near the aforementioned frontal boundaries north of 24N between 19W and 50W. Refer to the Special Features section for swell and seas in this area. To the west, gentle W to NW winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are present north of 20N between 53W and 64W. Off the northeast Florida coast, fresh with locally strong west to southwesterly winds and 6 to 10 ft seas prevail eastward to 64W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and seas at 10 to 16 ft in large NW swell dominate north of 18N between the African coast and 29W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident from 09N to 18N between the central African coast and 37W. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE to S to SW winds with 6 to 10 ft seas are noted from 05N to 20N between 37W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas will persist east of 63W through Thu. A cold front moving off the east coast of the United States today will promote fresh to strong westerly winds and building seas across the waters off northeast Florida. This boundary will also produce strong to near-gale westerly winds and higher seas north of 28N across the western Atlantic waters through Wed. Another cold front is forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast on Fri, bringing another round of increasing winds and seas off Florida and near northwest Bahamas. $$ Stripling