000 AXNT20 KNHC 261129 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient will sustain gale force winds north of Colombia through early this morning. Seas will peak at 9 to 11 ft under the strongest winds. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal low pressure off the Carolina coast will deepen further as it moves toward Bermuda through today, bringing fresh to strong westerly winds north of 28N between 56W and 70W. As this system moves farther east and strengthens, winds will reach gale force north of 29N between 55W and 60W by this evening. See paragraph below for a detailed description of expected wave heights in this area. Central Atlantic Significant Swell event: An earlier Altika altimeter satellite pass indicated combined sea wave heights were already reaching up to 20 ft near 30N between 45W and 55W. This represents a new set of reinforcing northerly swell of 10 to 20 ft with 12 to 15 second periods moving into waters north of 20N between 25W and 65W today. Looking ahead, another round of large NW swell will impact the waters north of 28N between 35W and 55W by mid week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near Freetown and extends southwestward to 02N20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from the Equator to the Liberia coast between 10W and 13W. An ITCZ continues from 02N20W across 00N28W to the Brazilian coast just east of Sao Luis. Scattered showers are present near and north of the ITCZ from the Equator to 04N between 26W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Dense fog are persisting up to 40 nm off the northern Gulf coast, some coastal stations reported visibility down to 3/4 sm overnight. Patchy fog is also evident farther out across the northern Gulf waters with oil platforms indicated visibility down to 2 1/2 sm earlier this morning. A surface trough with no significant weather is over the central and southwestern Gulf. A 1024 mb high at the east-central Gulf is dominating much of the region. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present north of the Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the northeastern and east- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned high will dominate most of the region through midweek next week. Expect gentle to moderate southerly winds for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh southerly winds at the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf on Fri. Gales could develop at the western Bay of Campeche. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about the ongoing gale warning. A surface ridge extending east-northeastward from a 1023 mb high over the northwest Bahamas is prolonging a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Patchy trade-wind showers are found at the northeastern basin, including the Virgin Islands and Lesser Antilles. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are present at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas exist for the north-central basin. Mainly moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for eastern and western basin. For the forecast, tight gradient between a high over the northwest Bahamas and Colombian low will sustain moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly winds across the central Caribbean through midweek next week. Winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse to minimal gale-force through early this morning, and possible Wed and Thu nights. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through this morning, then become moderate by late this afternoon. Fresh to occasional strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages through midweek next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about the upcoming gale warning and significant swell. A cold front curves southwestward from the western Azores across 31N36W and 25N45W to 25N56W, then continues westward as a stationary front to 25N66W. Patchy rain are seen near and up to 80 nm northwest and north of this boundary. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Equator to 07N between 45W and the Brazil/French Guiana coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the winds and seas mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh W to NW to N winds with 7 to 10 ft seas are evident north of 25N between 36W and 60W. Farther west north of 25N, gentle to moderate E to SE to S winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist between 60W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate westerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas are noted north of 26N between the northwest African coast and 36W. Across the Tropical Atlantic waters, gentle to occasional ENE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen from 04N to 25N/26N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along 27N will maintain fresh to locally strong trades north of Hispaniola and near Windward Passage until early this morning. A strong cold front sinking southeastward from the Georgia/Carolinas coast will reach from 31N63W to 29N74W by noon today. It should then push eastward into the central Atlantic with its tail from 31N51W to 28N59W to 27N65W tonight. Fresh to strong NW to W winds and large northerly swell behind this front will reach north of 28N east of 70W later this morning. By late this afternoon, these winds will reach near-gale to gale force east of 65W with very large swell. Looking ahead, another frontal boundary is going to move off the Georgia/Carolinas coast on Mon, bringing fresh to strong westerly winds and rising seas to the offshore waters of northeast Florida. $$ Forecaster Chan