000 AXNT20 KNHC 260356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Feb 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient prevails over the northern Colombia area supporting fresh to strong winds during the daytime hours, and gale force winds tonight. Seas will peak in the range of 9 to 11 ft under the strongest winds. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Developing low pressure currently moving off the Carolina coast will deepen further as it moves toward Bermuda through Sun, bringing fresh to strong westerly winds north of 30N between 60W and 70W. As this system moves farther east and strengthens, winds will reach gale force north of 29N between 55W and 60W on Sun night. See paragraph below for a detailed description of expected wave heights in this area. Central Atlantic Significant Swell event: An earlier Altika altimeter satellite pass indicated combined sea wave heights were already reaching up to 20 ft near 30N between 45W and 55W. This is part of a new push of reinforcing northerly swell of 10 to 20 ft with 12 to 15 second periods into the waters north of 20N between 25W and 65W through Sun. Although in the process of decaying, swell in excess of 8 ft will reach into the tropical Atlantic by late Mon, mainly east of 55W. Looking ahead, another round of large NW swell will impact the waters north of 28N between 35W and 55W by mid week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 01N35W to 02S45W. No significant thunderstorm activity is evident. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered over the northeast Gulf near 28N85W. The regular, daily surface trough that forms over the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula has developed and extends into the south-central Gulf. This may be supporting fresh or locally strong NE to N winds along the northern and western Yucatan coastlines. Light and variable winds persist over the northeast Gulf, with moderate E to SE winds elsewhere. Wave heights are 2 to 4 ft across the Gulf, except near flat over the far northeast Gulf under the center of the high pressure. Areas of fog are still being reported over the northern Gulf, but no areas of dense fog are evident at this time. For the forecast, the 1023 mb high at the northeastern Gulf and western Florida will dominate most of the region through midweek next week. Expect light to gentle winds for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh southerly winds at the western Gulf. This will continue to favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu evening ahead of the next cold front forecast to move across the Gulf region on Fri. Gales could develop at the western Bay of Campeche. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about the ongoing gale warning. Strong to near-gale force winds persist off the coast of Colombia, with 8 to 10 ft wave heights. Fresh winds persist elsewhere over the south-central and southwest Caribbean, with strong winds noted across the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere. Wave heights are 4 to 6 ft in most areas outside of the southwest Caribbean. Regional radar depictions indicate a few passing showers near Puerto Rico and across the Windward Islands. For the forecast, thee tight gradient between a high near the northwest Bahamas and Colombian low will sustain moderate to fresh with locally strong winds across the central Caribbean through midweek next week. Winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse to minimal gale-force through early Sun morning, and possible Wed and Thu nights. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun morning, then become moderate by late Sun afternoon. Fresh to occasional strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the NE Caribbean and passages through midweek next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about the upcoming gale warning and significant swell. A cold front reaches from the western Azores to 25N50W to 25N70W. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are noted both ahead of and behind this front, between 30W and 60W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft wave heights are evident elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along 27N will maintain fresh to locally strong trades north of Hispaniola and near Windward Passage until early Sun morning. A strong cold front sinking southeastward from the Georgia/Carolinas coast will reach from 31N63W to 28N74W by noon Sun. It should then push eastward into the central Atlantic with its tail from 31N52W to 27N68W by Sun night. Fresh to strong NW to W winds and large northerly swell behind this front will reach north of 28N east of 70W overnight. By late Sun afternoon, these winds will reach near-gale to gale force east of 65W with very large swell. Looking ahead, another frontal boundary is going to move off the Georgia/northeast Florida coast on Mon night, bringing fresh to strong westerly winds and rising seas to northeast Florida offshore waters. $$ Christensen