000 AXNT20 KNHC 252300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient prevails over the northern Colombia area supporting fresh to strong winds during the daytime hours, and gale force winds at nighttime. Seas will peak in the range of 9 to 11 ft under the strongest winds. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal low pressure system is forecast to track eastward near Bermuda on Sun. This will bring fresh to strong westerly winds north of 30N between 62W and 70W. As this system moves farther east and strengthens, winds will reach gale force north of 29N between 55W and 60W on Sun night. Seas are expected to peak between 13 and 15 ft in the strongest winds. Central Atlantic Significant Swell event: Wave heights currently range from 8 to 10 ft north of 25N between 35W and 65W, following a weakening cold front. Another cold front will move across the north central Atlantic over the next several days. This will bring reinforcing large NW swell of 10 to 20 ft with 12 to 15 second periods into the waters north of 20N between 25W and 65W Sat through Sun. Although subsiding, swell in excess of 8 ft will reach into the tropical Atlantic by late Mon, mainly east of 55W. Looking ahead, another round of large NW swell will impact the waters north of 28N between 35W and 55W by mid week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N14W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07N between 12W-29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 30N86W. A diurnal surface trough is over the southwestern Gulf with no significant weather. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days producing a moderate to fresh southerly wind flow. This will continue to favor the developing of marine fog across the northern Gulf, including the coastal waters of the northern Gulf states. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects. The return flow will increase to fresh to strong speeds by Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to move across the Gulf region on Fri. Gales may follow this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about the ongoing Gale Warning. Patchy trade-wind showers are noted across the eastern basin, including waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are over the central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the high will continue to support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sun morning. Winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse to minimal gale-force this evening through Sun morning. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun morning. All these winds should gradually decrease in both speed and coverage starting Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Wed. These winds are forecast to persist Thu and Thu night while increasing some. Long period N swell will impact the NE Caribbean and passages by Sun evening into Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about the upcoming Gale Warning and significant swell. A cold front curves westward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N46W to 27N61W to 31N75W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. To the east, a pair of surface troughs were analyzed between 20W and 50W. These troughs are the remnants of a frontal boundary, with no significant convection at this time. A 1016 mb high is analyzed near 23N26W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present north of 26N between 65W and 79W. Light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail from the Bahamas northward between 75W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate W to N winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail north of 22N between the African coast and 25W. To the south, gentle to moderate NNE to ENE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted from 05N to 20N/22N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge along 27N will maintain fresh to locally strong trades north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through late tonight. A strong cold front sinking south of 31N will be located along 25N by this evening. It should then push eastward into the central Atlantic with its tail remaining along 25N E of 65W while weakening. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front. Looking ahead, a frontal low pressure will move eastward to near Bermuda on Sun, and bring strong to minimal gale force westerly winds north of 29N east of 60W by late Sun into Sun evening. Rough to very rough seas are also expected in the wake of this system. $$ ERA