000 AXNT20 KNHC 230443 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Feb 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in NW Colombia and the south-central Caribbean will maintain strong to near-gale force easterly trade winds offshore Colombia during the daytime hours, increasing to gale-force at night. Seas will peak near 14 ft with the strongest winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ then stretches from 05N19W to 00N33W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite imagery south of 04N and between 17W and 27W. Similar convection is noted south of 07N and between 29N and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high pressure system positioned near Bermuda continues to exert its influence westward into the Gulf of Mexico. A few light showers are seen in the Bay of Campeche, and western and NE Gulf waters, while dry air is evident in the rest of the basin. Moderate to locally strong anticyclonic winds dominate most of the Gulf waters, with the strongest winds occurring south of 25N and between 85W and 91W. Seas of 5-10 ft prevail across the basin, except for 2-5 ft in the eastern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. The highest seas are found in the NW Gulf. The light return flow near the coastal waters of the northern Gulf are conducive for the development of marine fog during the overnight hours and lasting through the morning hours. Currently, a dense fog advisory is in effect from the nearshore waters of southern Texas to Alabama. Mariners should take precaution navigating these waters as visibility may decrease below 1 nm. Also, areas of smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are confined to the the far southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda interacting with a strong extra-tropical low over the U.S. Midwest is forcing fresh to strong SE to S winds over the W and central Gulf of Mexico. As the extratropical low pulls northeastward, these winds should diminish over most of the Gulf on Thu. However, a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula during the day will induce fresh to strong E to SE winds over the SW Gulf nightly for the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E to SE winds should prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the Texas and Louisiana coast on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on the ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are prevalent across most of the Caribbean Sea waters. The strongest winds are found in the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. Outside of the Gale warning area, seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Light to moderate easterly breezes are noted in the lee of Cuba and SW Caribbean, especially within 100 nm of Costa Rica. Seas in the waters described are 2-6 ft. For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia each evening/early morning through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trades is expected to diminish beginning Sat night, as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun night. Strong to near gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue the next several days. Looking ahead, large long-period N swell may begin impacting the tropical N Atlantic zones starting on Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N48W to 27N60W and scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm ahead of the boundary, especially north of 27N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are found behind the front, along with northerly swell producing seas of 6-9 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a vast surface ridge. A 1025 mb high pressure center is positioned near Bermuda and a modest gradient supports fresh to locally strong easterly winds south of 23N and west of 70W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Fresh southerly winds are evident off NE Florida, along with seas of 2-4 ft. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and moderate seas prevail west of 55W. Another area where a moderate pressure gradient sustains fresh N-NE winds is in the eastern Atlantic, primarily south of 20N and east of 35W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther north, a tigher gradient supports fresh to strong N-NE winds off Morocco, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades north of Hispaniola and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through Sat night. The W end of a weak cold front moving southeastward across the NE forecast waters should reach from 26N55W to 25N65W Thu morning and then dissipate by Fri morning. A stronger cold front will move across the northern forecast waters Fri night, extend from near 28N55W to 27N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, then weaken as it reaches from near 23N55W to 24N65W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun night. Strong NW winds are likely on Sat across the NE waters behind the front, with large N swell propagating southward E of 65W though Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold front may arrive over the NE waters on Sun, causing strong breeze conditions on both sides of the front north of 27N through Mon night. $$ DELGADO