000 AXNT20 KNHC 222348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Feb 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in NW Colombia and the south-central Caribbean will maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds offshore Colombia during the daytime hours, increasing to gale-force at night. Seas will peak near 14 ft with the strongest winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through Mon night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 01N32W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04S to 06N E of 13W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 11W and 23W, and from 05S to 06N between 25W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure center of 1024 mb located SW of Bermuda near 27N73W extends westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The associated very dry environment supported by dry air aloft continues to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms across most of the basin, except across the Veracruz offshore waters where a surface trough is generating scattered showers. Lower pressures have established across the western half of the basin ahead of the next frontal system. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure W of 90W is supporting fresh to locally strong SE to S winds from 22N to 27N W of 86W, and moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 9 ft basin-wide, being the highest seas in the NW gulf. Otherwise, areas of smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are confined to the the far southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda interacting with a strong extratropical low over the U.S. Midwest is forcing fresh to strong SE to S winds over the W and central Gulf of Mexico. As the extratropical low pulls northeastward, these winds should diminish over most of the Gulf by Thu. However, a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula during the day will induce fresh to strong E to SE winds over the SW Gulf nightly for the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E to SE winds should prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the Texas and Louisiana coast on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on the ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds prevail over great portions of the central Caribbean, with near gale-force near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere across the east and SW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where winds are fresh to strong. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across most of the basin, except for seas of 8 to 10 ft in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia each evening/early morning through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trades is expected to diminish beginning Sat night, as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun night. Strong to near gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue the next several days. Looking ahead, large long-period N swell may begin impacting the tropical N Atlantic zones starting on Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging dominates the western and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters, which is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds along the southern periphery of the ridge, particularly N of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage, and over the tropical Atlantic S of 20N. The tail of a cold front is over the central subtropical waters from 31N54W to 29N62W. This front is generating scattered showers and tstms N of 23N between 40W and 57W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are between the Cabo Verde Islands and downwind to about 11N, and also near the coast of Morocco between 30N and 32N. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the Atlantic E of the Bahamas with the exception of 6 to 8 ft N of 29N between 47W and 60W. For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades north of Hispaniola and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through Sat night. The W end of a weak cold front moving southeastward across the NE forecast waters should reach from 26N55W to 25N65W Thu morning and then dissipate by Fri morning. A stronger cold front will cross our northern border Fri night, extend from 28N55W to 27N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, reach from 23N55W to 24N65W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun night. Strong NW winds are likely on Sat across the NE waters behind the front, with large N swell propagating southward east of 65W though Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold front may arrive over the NE waters on Sun, causing strong breeze conditions on both sides of the front north of 27N through Mon night. $$ Ramos