000 AXNT20 KNHC 221743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force each night just offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft within the strongest winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through the forecast period. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 01N30W tom 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 05N between 05W and 20W, and from 00N to 06N between 40W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure center of 1023 mb located S of Bermuda near 25N65W extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The associated very dry environment supported by dry air loft as well continues to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms across the basin. The pressure gradient has tightened over the west and central Gulf due to lowering surface pressures in Texas and northern Mexico. This has induced fresh to strong southerly winds west of about 87W. Several buoy and platform observations confirmed the presence of 25 to 30 kt southerly winds. Seas over these waters are in the range of 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 7 to 10 ft over the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the reminder of the Gulf with the exception of fresh SE winds in the Yucatan Channel with seas of 4 to 5 ft. Light and moist southerly flow over relatively cooler water has created areas of fog, some of the dense type, over the Florida Panhandle. A dense fog advisory is in effect for this area until noon. Similar favorable conditions for marine fog to develop are again expected tonight. Areas of smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are confined to the the far southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, as previously mentioned the high pressure located S of Bermuda interacting with a strong extratropical low over the U.S. Midwest is forcing fresh to strong SE to S winds over the W and central Gulf of Mexico. As the extratropical low pulls northeastward, these winds should diminish over most of the Gulf by Thu. However, a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula during the day will induce fresh to strong E to SE winds over the SW Gulf nightly for the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds should prevail through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on the ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean S of 18N, with the strongest winds of 30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW part of the basin, increasing to fresh to strong W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft over the eastern part of the basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee waters of Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia each evening/early morning through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trades is expected to diminish beginning Sat night, as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun night. Strong to near gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue the next few days before diminishing Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic waters. Light and variables winds are under the influence of the ridge. Winds increase to moderate to locally fresh along the southern periphery of the ridge, particularly N of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage, and over the tropical Atlantic S of 20N. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are between the Cabo Verde Islands and downwind to about 14N, and also near the coast of Morocco between 30N and 32N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the Atlantic E of the Bahamas with the exception of 6 to 8 ft N of 29N between 53W and 72W, ans S of 20N E of 55W, and near the coast of Morocco. For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades north of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage for the next several days. The W end of a weak cold front will move southeastward across the NE forecast waters tonight, and reach from 26N55W to 25N65W Thu morning, and then dissipate by Fri morning. A stronger cold front will cross our northern border Fri night, extend from 29N55W to 27N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, and reach from 23N55W to 23N65W Sun morning. Strong to near-gale NW winds and large NW to N swell are likely on Sat across the NE waters behind the front. Looking ahead, another cold front may arrive over the NE waters on Sun. $$ GR