902 AXNT20 KNHC 220512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force each night just offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft within the strongest winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through the forecast period. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N15W to 00N30W to 01S47W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and east of 25W. Similar convection is present south of 07N and west of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure system positioned between the Leeward Islands and Bermuda extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The dry environment is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms across the basin. The pressure gradient has tightened over the western Gulf due to lowering surface pressures across Texas and northern Mexico, resulting in fresh to strong southerly winds west of 92W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Fresh to strong SE winds are also found off northern Yucatan, mainly south of 24N and between 86W and 91W. Seas in the waters described are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds and slight seas prevail. Light, southerly flow in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is likely to increase the moisture across the coastal waters of Alabama, the Florida panhandle and Big Bend region. These conditions are favorable for the development of at least patchy fog in the overnight hours and lasting through the morning hours. For the forecast, a ridge axis currently extends from S Florida into the Gulf along 26N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds have been observed in the W Gulf, and will increase to strong to near gale- force tonight through Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf. Peak seas to 11 ft are forecast in the highest winds through Wed evening. These winds and seas are ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas. High pressure and associated fresh return flow is expected across most of the basin Thu, before diminishing to moderate speeds Fri. However, fresh return flow will persist on Fri in the SW Gulf and off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected across the basin Sat through Sun night as the western extension of Atlantic high pressure will reach westward along 30N. Nocturnal fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected along the northern Yucatan Peninsula through the period as the Yucatan Peninsula trough moves offshore. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on the continuing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds continue to affect most of the Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Near gale to gale force NE winds are found off the northwest coast of Colombia as described in the Special Features section. Outside of the Gale Warning area, seas are 5-9 ft. Gentle to locally moderate east breezes and seas of 2-5 ft are present in the lee waters of Cuba. Patches of low level moisture are producing some weak showers over the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, an Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N will help sustain fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean through Wed, then become strong Wed night through Sat as high pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. The coverage area of these winds is expected to diminish beginning Sat night. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia each night through Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Sun night. Fresh to strong SE winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will begin in the Yucatan Channel tonight and last through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and a storm system south of Nova Scotia result in fresh to strong SW winds north of 28N and between 55W and 75W. Seas are 6-9 ft in these waters. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail south of 20N. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are affecting the waters north of 25N and east of 19W. Seas in the waters described are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, an E to W ridge axis along 26N will weaken through tonight, then reorganize NE of the Bahamas Wed. Fresh to strong SW to W winds across the northern waters should continue through early Wed as a frontal system sweeps eastward across the NW Atlantic. The western end of that front will move southeastward across the NE forecast waters Wed afternoon and night, and reach along 22N late Thu. High pressure behind the front will act to freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during this period. Looking ahead, large NW swell and near gale- force NW winds are possible on Sat across the NE waters associated with another cold front. The southern part of a cold front will brush the NE forecast waters Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, rather quiet conditions are expected Sun and Sun night as high pressure settles in over the area. $$ DELGADO