000 AXNT20 KNHC 212317 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force each night just offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft within the strongest winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through the forecast period. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01N25W to 03N40W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 06N between 45W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge axis currently extends across S Florida into the Gulf of Mexico along 25N producing light to gentle return flow and seas of 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf where seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Some clouds are noted across the basin moving northward under the southerly flow. For the forecast, strong to near gale-force southerly winds are expected over the NW and north-central Gulf tonight and Wed. Peak seas to 11 ft are forecast in the highest winds through Wed evening. These winds and seas are ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas. High pressure and fresh return flow is forecast across most of the basin Thu, before diminishing to moderate speeds Fri. However, fresh return flow will persist on Fri in the SW Gulf and off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected across the basin Sat and Sat night as the western extension of Atlantic high pressure will reach westward along 30N. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on the continuing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Latest scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over the south-central Caribbean based on altimeter data, 5 to 7 ft over the eastern part of the basin, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers, more concentrated over the Lesser Antilles where light showers have been reported. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N will help sustain fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean through Wed, then become strong Wed night through Fri as high pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia each night through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Sat night. Fresh to strong SE winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will begin in the Yucatan Channel tonight and last through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the entire Atlantic forecast region with a 1020 mb high pressure located near 27N60W. Another high pressure center of 1025 mb is S of the Azores near 34N27W. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails, except off NE Florida where W winds are fresh to strong affecting the waters N of 29N and W of 75W, between the coast of Mauritania and 20W in the E Atlantic where NE winds are fresh to strong, and between the Madeira and the Canary Islands where moderate to fresh northerly winds are blowing. Seas are generally in the 4 to 7 ft range across the entire area E of the Bahamas with the exception of 6 to 8 ft between the coast of W Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, an E to W ridge axis along 26N will weaken through tonight, then reorganize NE of the Bahamas Wed. Fresh to strong SW to W winds across the northern waters should continue through early Wed as a frontal system sweeps eastward across the NW Atlantic. The western end of that front will move southeastward across the NE forecast waters Wed afternoon and night, and reach along 22N late Thu. High pressure behind the front will act to freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during this period. Looking ahead, large NW swell and near gale force NW winds are possible on Sat across the NE waters associated with another cold front. $$ GR