000 AXNT20 KNHC 211121 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force during the late night and early morning hours just offshore NW Colombia. An overnight ASCAT satellite data pass nicely highlighted near gale to gale force NE winds within about 120 nm offshore northwestern Colombia. This weather pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the week. Seas are forecast to build to near 14 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W and continues southwestward to 05N16W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N25W to 02N36W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 25W-33W and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 33W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 39W-42W and within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 16W-19W. Similar convection is N of the ITCZ from 03N to 06N between 46W-50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The western extension of the Atlantic subtropical ridge reaches westward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions across the basin. Moderate or lighter anticyclonic winds are present along with seas of 3-5 ft per latest buoy observations and altimeter data, with the exception of slighter higher seas of 4-6 ft in the west-central Gulf section. Areas of smoke and haze are in the southwestern and west-central Gulf sections, while marine fog, some of which is dense in patches and in areas, is along and just offshore the Gulf coastal plains westward from Mobile, Alabama. For the forecast, a 1019 mb high pressure center located near 25N86W will shift to well E of the Gulf by early Wed. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf today, then strengthen to strong to near gale-force tonight and Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf, ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas. High pressure and fresh return flow is expected across most of the basin Thu, then over the western section and also over the central section S of about 26N from Thu night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected across the basin Sat and Sat night as the western extension of Atlantic high pressure will reach westward along 30N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the ongoing Gale Warning. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea and relatively lower pressure in NW South America continues to support fresh to strong easterly breezes across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale- force winds are occurring in the south-central Caribbean and winds to gale-force are offshore NW Colombia as described above under the Special Features section. Outside of the Gale Warning area, seas are 7-10 ft in the west central Caribbean from 11N to 15N W of 80W, 8-12 ft in the southwestern part of the sea due to northeast swell, 9-13 ft S of 15N between 76W-80W and 5-8 ft elsewhere except 3-5 ft N of 18N and W of 76W, where moderate or lighter winds are present as noted in overnight ASCAT data over that part of the basin. Patches of moisture, in the form of low-level clouds, are seen moving westward over the eastern Caribbean and elsewhere S of about 18N. Isolated showers are possible with these clouds. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N will help sustain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Wed, then become strong Wed night through Fri as high pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia at night through the period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then spread to the Yucatan Channel through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure over the Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high near 26N60W and a 1025 mb high well N of the area near the Azores is the main feature controlling the weather pattern throughout. It is inhibiting deep convective activity from developing. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are occurring off NE Florida, especially north of 29N and west of 78W as confirmed by an overnight ASCAT pass. Seas over these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate or lighter winds and seas of 4-7 ft exist W of 60W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from near 31N45W to 24N54W. No deep convection is being produced by this feature. The aforementioned high pressure supports gentle to moderate NE-E winds between 35W-60W. Seas over these waters re 5-7 ft, except for a small pocket of 6-8 ft seas from 25N to 27N between 41W-45W. The pressure gradient between the 1025 mb high that is located south of the Azores and relatively lower pressure in western Africa is allowing for fresh to strong N-NE winds south of 22N and east of 30W as seen in an overnight ASCAT pass over that part of the Atlantic. Seas over these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds along with moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, an E to W ridge axis along 26N will weaken through tonight, then reorganize NE of the Bahamas Wed. Fresh to strong SW to W winds across the northern waters should continue through early Wed as a frontal system sweeps eastward across the NW Atlantic. The western end of that front will move across the forecast NE waters Wed afternoon and night, and reach along 22N late Thu. High pressure behind the front will act to freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during this period. $$ Aguirre