000 AXNT20 KNHC 210420 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force during the late night and early morning hours just offshore NW Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale to gale force NE winds within 100 nm of NW Colombia. This weather pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the week. Seas are forecast to build to near 14 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 01N28W to 02N40W to 00N49W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and east of 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge remains positioned over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions across the basin. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, a 1020 mb high pressure center located near 26N85W will shift to well E of the Gulf by Wed. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf on Tue, then strengthen to strong to near gale-force Tue night and Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf, ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas. High pressure and fresh return flow is expected across most of the basin Thu, then over the western section and also over the central section S of 26N from Thu night through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in NW South America continue to support fresh to strong easterly breezes across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force winds are found in the south-central Caribbean and winds to gale speeds off NW Colombia, as detailed in the Special Features section. Outside of the Gale Warning area, seas are 6-10 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridge along 27N will help sustain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Wed, then become strong Wed night through Fri as high pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia at night through the period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras Tue night and spread to the Yucatan Channel through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic waters, suppressing the development of deep convection. Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring off NE Florida, especially north of 29N and west of 78W. This was confirmed by the latest satellite wind data. Seas in these waters are 4-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent west of 60W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N44W to 17N44W. No deep convection near this feature. The broad ridge supports moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds between 35W and 60W. Seas in the waters described are 5-8 ft. The pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system south of the Azores and lower pressures in west Africa sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds south of 23N and east of 30W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, an E to W high pressure ridge axis along 26N will weaken through Tue night, then reorganize NE of the Bahamas Wed. Fresh to strong SW to W winds across the northern waters should continue through early Wed as a frontal system sweeps eastward across the NW Atlantic. The western end of that front will sink into the NE waters late Wed, and reach along 22N late Thu. High pressure behind the front will act to freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during this period. $$ DELGADO