000 AXNT20 KNHC 202320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Feb 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure well NE of the area and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force during the late night and early morning hours just offshore NW Colombia. This weather pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the week. Seas are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W and continues westward to near 01N32W. The ITCZ extends from 01N32W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 04N between 16N and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure system located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W dominates the basin, suppressing the development of convection. Light to gentle winds are observed under the influence of this system, with the exception of gentle to moderate southerly winds over the NW Gulf. Seas are generally in the 1 to 3 ft range except 3 to 4 ft over the western Gulf. For the forecast, the above mentioned high pressure will shift southeastward to the southeastern Gulf tonight, then to well E of the Gulf by Wed. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf on Tue, then strengthen to strong to near gale-force Tue night and Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf, ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas. High pressure and fresh return flow is expected across most of the basin Thu, then over the western section and also over the central section S of 26N from Thu night through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning. Latest scatterometer data provided observations of strong to near gale-force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia with fresh to strong trades over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern and NW Caribbean, including also the Windward Passage. Seas are 7 to 10 ft over the central Caribbean based on altimeter data, 5 to 7 ft over the eastern part of the basin, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft in the Windward Passage and between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridge along 27N will help sustain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Wed, then become strong Wed night through Fri as high pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia at night through the period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras Tue night and spread to the Yucatan Channel through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge dominates the western Atlantic. A frontal trough extends from 31N50W to 27N63W. An ASCAT pass reveals moderate to fresh NE winds north of the trough. Seas over these waters are 6-8 ft due to a long- period NW to N swell. Another surface trough is analyzed from 30N41W to 17N47W. Mainly moderate winds prevail on either side of this second trough with seas of 6 to 8 ft. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure situated S of the Azores near 35N27W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 13N to 22N between 20W and 25W. these winds are affecting the Cabo Verde Islands where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also noted between the Lesser Antilles and across the waters NE of the Leeward Islands, particularly from 16N to 20N between 57W and 63W. Abundant multi- layer clouds with possible showers are seen N of 10N between the W coast of Africa and 35W. Isolated thunderstorms are near 19N30W based on Lightning data. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will reorganize NE of the Bahamas on Wed. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected across the northern waters tonight through early Wed as a frontal system sweeps eastward across the NW Atlantic. The western end of that front will sink into the NE waters late Wed, and reach along 22N late Thu. High pressure behind the front will act to freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during this period. $$ GR