000 AXNT20 KNHC 201037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Feb 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure well N of the area and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force during the late night and early morning hours just offshore NW Colombia. This weather pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the week. Seas are forecast to build to near 14 ft during the late night and early morning hours winds have reach gale-force speeds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 05N14W to the Equator at 30W, and continues to 02N40W and to the Equator near 49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 14W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 18W-23W and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 42W-45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure system is located just south of SE Louisiana and dominates the Gulf of Mexico, suppressing the development of convection. Mainly fresh NE to NE winds are present over the offshore waters of NW Yucatan, especially south of 22N and east of 93W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail elsewhere. Overnight ASCAT data indicates a surface trough in the far southwest and western sections of the Gulf extending from near 26N97W to the central Bay of Campeche. Light and variable winds are to its W, while fresh E winds are to its E to near 93W. Seas W of the trough are 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft E of it to 93W. Patchy fog is noted over sections of the western and northern Gulf. Most of the fog should dissipate in the morning, some may linger into the early afternoon. Conditions appear favorable for marine fog to develop again tonight. For the forecast, high pressured centered over the north-central Gulf will shift southeastward to the southeastern Gulf by this evening, then to well E of the Gulf by Wed. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf on Tue, then strengthen to strong to near gale-force Tue night and Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf areas ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas. Brief gusts to gale-force may be possible. High pressure along with fresh return flow is expected across most of the basin Thu, then over the western section and also over the central section S of 26N from Thu night through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the ongoing Gale Warning. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1032 mb centered SE of Nova Scotia and lower pressure in NW Colombia and in the south-central Caribbean continues to support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The strong winds are mainly confined to the Windward Passage, off southern Hispaniola and especially in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to gale-force winds are occurring off NW Colombia as detailed in the Special Features section. Outside of the Gale Warning area, seas are 7-11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are evident in the remainder of the basin long with seas of 4-7 ft. Isolated showers moving quickly in the trade wind flow are possible E of 69W and also from 12N to 15N W of 69W. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure N of the area will help sustain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through tonight, then across the south-central portion of the sea through early Thu. Afterward, a new area of high pressure that will build over the western Atlantic in the wake of a cold front will help maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia at night through the period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba this morning, then again from Wed afternoon through Fri night. Fresh to strong trade winds and high seas prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will diminish today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N53W to 28N59W and to 27N67W. No deep convection is noted near the frontal boundary. Overnight ASCAT data reveals fresh NE winds north of the front. Seas over these waters are 6-8 ft due to a long-period NW to N swell. Farther east, a broad surface trough has its axis extending from 31N44W to 24N46W and to 17N46W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough. A tight gradient to its W is producing fresh to strong N to NE winds from 20N to 25N between 50W-53W along with resultant seas of 9-10 ft. Another surface trough is to its E from 26N36W to 17N38W. A sharp upper-level trough to its E is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms roughly from 21N to 26N and between 30W and the trough. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure of 1025 mb centered near the Azores is supporting an area of fresh to locally strong E to SE winds from 21N to 28N and between 31W and the trough. Seas with these winds are in the range of about 6-8 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are present south of 20N and between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere over the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front mentioned above will gradually dissipate through early this evening. Weakening high pressure is centered across the NE waters and to the S of the front. This pressure pattern will maintain fresh to strong trade winds S of 22N today, then fresh winds tonight through Wed as high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds are expected over the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola from Wed afternoon through the end of the week. These winds will seep through the Windward Passage during this time. The tail-end of a developing cold front is forecast to emerge from NE Florida today, and affect the northern offshore waters with fresh to strong SW to W winds tonight through early Wed. $$ Aguirre