000
AXNT20 KNHC 192323
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the 1030 mb 
Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is near 38N64W, and the 
comparatively lower surface pressures that are in NW Colombia, 
will support strong to near-gale force NE to ENE wind speeds, 
during the daytime hours, and gale-force wind speeds during the 
late night and early morning hours, in the south-central 
Caribbean Sea, just to the north of Colombia, during most of the 
upcoming week. The sea heights will be ranging from 12 feet to 14
feet, with the fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, 
and the Offshore Waters Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noss.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A surface trough extends from the African coast to 04N12W. ITCZ 
continues from that point to 01S38W to beyond the Equator at 
26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 
04N between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends across the southern portion
of the Straits of Florida and the NW coast of Cuba then reaching
the Yucatan Channel near 21N87W. Surface high pressure prevails
across the basin in the wake of the front, centered over eastern
Louisiana. Light to gentle easterly winds prevail across most of
the basin with 3 to 5 ft seas. The exception is over the Bay of
Campeche, where moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas peaking
to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, surface high pressure will shift gradually SE 
through late Tue. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop 
across the western half of the Gulf on Tue, then strengthen 
strong to near gale force Tue night into Wed night, ahead of a 
frontal system that will stall across Texas. High pressure and 
fresh return flow are then expected across most of the basin Thu 
and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the
ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning.

A 1030 mb mid-Atlantic high is sustaining a trade-wind regime 
for the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area at the south-
central basin, strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds with 8 to 11 
ft seas are present. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas of 4 
to 6 ft exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to 
ENE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the 
basin, including the Windward Passage and waters just south of 
Cuba.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the front is 
offshore of the mid Atlantic coast and will help sustain fresh to
strong easterly trades in the central Caribbean through Mon, and
then across the south central portions through early Thu. Winds 
will pulse nightly to gale force off the coast of Colombia 
through Thu night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur 
in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Mon, then again 
Thu and Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds and high seas prevailing
east of the Leeward Islands will diminish Mon through Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N56W to 28N66W, then becomes weak and stationary to
24N80W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail along the front, with
seas ranging between 8-9 ft. At the central Atlantic, a 1016 mb 
low is centered near 23N44W. Waveheights are ranging from 8 to 
10 ft in mixed NE and E swell, from 20N northward between 35W 
and 50W. Fresh to strong winds have been within 390 nm of the low
pressure center in the N semicircle. To the east near the Canary
and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh 
NNE to ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are found north of 10N 
between the African coast and 35W. Light to gentle winds along 
with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell prevail for the 
rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W,the front will gradually dissipate 
through Mon night. Weakening high pressure is centered across the
NE waters and south of the front. This pressure pattern will 
maintain fresh to strong trade winds S of 22N through Mon, then 
fresh winds Mon night through Wed as high pressure weakens. The 
tail of a new cold front is forecast to emerge from NE Florida on
Mon morning and affect the northern offshore waters with 
moderate to fresh SW to W winds Mon night through early Wed.

$$
ERA