000 AXNT20 KNHC 172323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale force winds at daytime, and pulses to gale-force each night in the south-central Caribbean through at least Wed. Seas under the strongest winds will range from 12 to 14 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Northerly gale-force winds prevail across the Bay of Campeche behind a strong cold front that extends from the Florida Big Bend to 19N93W. Seas to 18 ft are expected with the strongest winds tonight. Conditions will gradually improve across the west-central Gulf and the Bay of Campeche on Sat morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 07N14W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N southward between 10W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front extends from the central Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force N winds follow the front, except for gale-force winds across the Veracruz offshore waters. Seas are up to 18 ft behind the front with the strongest winds. Light to gentle SE to S winds and seas to 6 ft are ahead of the front. For the forecast, the front will move E and exit the basin early on Sat, with winds and seas diminishing Sat night. Surface high pressure and associated ridging will develop across the gulf on Sun providing mainly light to gentle variable winds basin-wide through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop across the western half of the gulf on Tue ahead of the next frontal system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Ridging from the 1027 mb Bermuda high centered near 32N57W extends southward into the northern Caribbean, thus resulting in a tight pressure gradient across the region that is supporting fresh to strong trade winds S of 20N and E of 82W, where seas are up to 8 ft. In the far eastern Caribbean, a shearline extends across the Leeward Islands to 16N68W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are present south of the shearline, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft, except for up to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ESE winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, the 1027 mb high pressure center E of Bermuda is producing a broad subtropical ridge across the region, and will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades across most of the basin E of 82W through early Mon, including the Windward Passage. Winds will pulse nightly to gale force off the coast of Colombia through early next week. High seas in mixed N and NE swell across the tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon night. Strong trade winds prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will diminish to fresh speeds Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front stretches across the Central Atlantic from 31N37W to 20N47W, where it transitions to a shearline and continues across the Leeward Islands near 16N61W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 70 nm on either side of the front north of 22N. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh SE to S winds are found in a recent ASCAT pass within 200 nm north of 26N. The pressure gradient between a shearline and the Bermuda high continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong winds over the SW N Atlantic waters S of 30N where seas range from 8 to 12 ft. Fresh to strong S winds are ongoing off the NE coast of Florida north of 25N eastward to 72W ahead of a strong cold front that will enter the region tonight. Seas in this area are up to 8 ft. Otherwise, with the exception of locally fresh NE winds between the Cape Verde Islands and the W coast of Africa, moderate NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the ridge will maintain fresh to strong winds S of 24N into Sat morning, then shrink to S of 22N through early Mon as the high drifts NE. The cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida tonight. The pressure gradient between the high and the front will support strong winds ahead of the frontal boundary, N of 28N, tonight through Sat as the frontal boundary moves eastward. Strong northerly winds will prevail behind the front through Sat morning as it reach from near 31N73W to Palm Beach, Florida. Winds will then begin to veer and gradually diminish as the front continues eastward, and reaches from 31N57W to the NW Bahamas Sun morning, and then stalls. Weak high pressure will then prevail through early next week. $$ ERA