000 AXNT20 KNHC 170553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Feb 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and relatively lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale winds during the days, and gale-force winds for the nights in the south-central Caribbean Sea, offshore from Colombia through midweek next week. Seas under the strongest winds will range from 11 to 14 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Northerly near-gale to gale-force winds behind a strong cold front will continue at the west-central Gulf offshore of Tampico, Mexico tonight. As the front continues to move southeastward, these winds are going to migrate southward into the western Bay of Campeche, offshore of Veracruz by early Fri morning. Seas in the strongest winds will peak at 11 to 15 ft at the west-central Gulf, and 15 to 18 ft at the western Bay of Campeche. Conditions will gradually improve at the west-central Gulf late Fri night, and the western Bay of Campeche Sat morning. For both Gale Warnings above, please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough is inland over Africa. An ITCZ extends from 02N15W across 03N30W to northeast of Belem, Brazil near 01N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ, and south to the Equator. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. A strong cold front stretches southwestward from near New Orleans, Louisiana to just north of Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 90 nm northwest of this front. Behind the front outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale northerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft exist. Offshore from the northern Yucatan Peninsula, moderate to fresh SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are present. At the central and eastern Bay of Campeche, light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the front will exit the basin early on Sat, winds and seas in the wake of the front will diminish Sat night. Surface high pressure and associated ridging will develop across the gulf on Sun, providing mainly light to gentle variable winds for the entire Gulf through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop across the western half of the gulf on Tue ahead of the next frontal system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. The western end of a shear line runs westward from the northern Leeward Islands to just southwest of the Mona Passage. Patchy showers are found over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin and northern Leeward Islands. Otherwise, a fair trade- wind regime continues for the rest of the basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong with locally near-gale NE to ENE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are noted at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are seen over the north- central basin, and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, a subtropical ridge centered north of the area will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades across most of the basin through the forecast period. An area of northerly swell will persist across the tropical Atlantic into the weekend. Strong trade winds east of the Leeward Islands will diminish to fresh Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A modest cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low pressure southwest of the Azores across 31N38W to near 24N45W, then continues west-southwestward as a shear line through the northern Leeward Islands. Enhanced by a pronounced upper-level trough in the vicinity, scattered moderate convection is flaring up near and up to 120 nm east of the front, north of 23N. Patchy showers are found along and up to 60 nm north of the rest of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 9 to 11 ft seas are present north of 23N between the cold front and 50W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft exist from the shear line northward to 27N between 50W and 70W. Father west, moderate to locally fresh southeasterly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted from the Great Bahamas Bank northward between 70W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Near the Bermuda High at 32N63W, light and gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the eastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to SE trades and 8 to 12 ft seas in large northerly swell are evident north of 14N between the African coast and the cold front/40W, including near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. To the west, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate from 03N to the shear line/18N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W: a ridge building north of the area will cause winds south of 25N to increase to strong, along with seas building up to 11 ft through Sat. A cold front will enter the waters off northeastern Florida late Fri. As this front moves eastward across the western Atlantic Fri through Sat, strong winds are expected ahead and behind it mainly N of 28N. $$ Forecaster Chan