000 AXNT20 KNHC 161047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure near northwestern Colombia will sustain strong to near-gale force winds at the south-central Caribbean Sea, just north of the Colombia coast through at least Tue night. These winds are expected to peak at gale-force overnights. Seas under these winds will be 10 to 13 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf this morning, then move southeastward through Fri night. Northerly winds will increase to between strong and near-gale force at the west-central Gulf by late afternoon, then reach gale-force offshore from Tampico, Mexico by early evening. Strong to gale-force winds will spread southward to the western Bay of Campeche, including offshore from Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri morning. Seas at the west-central Gulf should build to between 10 and 13 ft by late Thu night, then peak at 13 to 17 ft and spread to the western Bay of Campeche on Fri. For both Gale Warnings above, please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Central Atlantic Large Northerly Swell: Large, long-period NW swell is generating seas of 12 to 13 ft north of 29N between 47W and 56W. As this swell continues to subside today, seas should drop below 12 ft by this evening. Gulf of Mexico Dense Fog: Southeasterly return flow has brought abundant moisture across the west-central and northwestern Gulf. This moisture combined with warm air over relatively cold shelf waters has allowed areas of marine fog, some dense to form. This fog should persist today until the cold front moves through. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The western end of the Africa monsoon trough is near the Guinea- Bissau coast; no significant convection is present. An ITCZ extends westward from 02N15W to 00N28W to 00S42W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from the equator to 04N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning and dense fog. The gradient between high pressure centered over Bermuda and lower pressure associated with a cold front over Texas is inducing fresh to locally strong S winds across the basin. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 9 ft in the NW Gulf. No convection is present in the Gulf this morning. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of a cold front which will emerge off Texas this morning. Strong to near gale force N winds can be expected behind the front in the western and central Gulf Thu into Sat. Conditions will improve Sat night into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning offshore Colombia. A 1029 mb Bermuda High continues to support a generally E trade- wind pattern across the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are present in the central basin. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the basin, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Locally strong E to SE winds have developed in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the persistent subtropical ridge centered north of the area will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades through the forecast period. An area of northerly swell will enter the tropical Atlantic today, then persist into the weekend. Winds will increase to strong east of the Leeward Islands tonight into Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about large NW swell at the central Atlantic. A weak cold front extends from 31N41W to 24N53W, then continues as a shear line to the Turks and Caicos. N of 25N, along and within 120 nm ahead of the front, scattered moderate convection is present. Moderate to fresh NE winds dominate the basin between the Bermuda high and the frontal boundary and shear line, and locally strong winds are developing N of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Over the Bahamas and waters N and W of the Bahamas, moderate to fresh SE winds dominate. Ahead of the front to 30W, moderate to fresh S winds are present. Elsewhere to the S, and W of 30W, moderate to fresh trades dominate. Over the eastern Atlantic fresh to locally strong NE winds are present. Outside of the area of higher swell described in the Special Features section, seas between 65W and the cold front and shear line are 8 to 10 ft, with 4 to 7 ft seas to the W. E of 40W, the higher NE winds are leading to seas of 8 to 11 ft, and decaying swell S of 15N is leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the ridge building N of the area will allow winds N of the shear line and S of 25N to increase to strong into Sat, with seas increasing to 11 ft. A cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida late Fri. This will support strong winds ahead and behind the frontal boundary, N of 28N, tonight through Sat as the frontal boundary moves eastward. $$ KONARIK