000 AXNT20 KNHC 141026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING: Expect NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 12 feet to pulse up tonight and again Wed night from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. Similar conditions are likely each night through Fri, due to a continued tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure over South America. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Northerly winds on the west side of a southward drifting low pressure are likely to increase over the next 24 hours, bringing the threat of gale conditions to Meteo- France zone Madeira Wed. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W to 00N25W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in associate with both features, mainly S of 07N. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 high pressure center is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico offshore Florida near 26N85W. This is keeping mainly gentle E to SE winds in place over the eastern basin. The gradient between the high and lower pressure over the Southern Plains of the United States is contributing to strong southerly winds over the NW Gulf, with fresh SE winds over the SW Gulf. Seas in the eastern Gulf are 1 to 3 ft, with 3 to 5 ft seas in the SW Gulf and 6 to 10 ft seas in the NW Gulf. The highest seas are occurring just offshore the Lower and Middle Texas coast, where wind gusts are nearing gale force. With the high pressure being the dominant feature, the Gulf of Mexico is void of convection this morning. For the forecast, high pressure in the NE Gulf will move E of the area today. Strong to near gale force S winds will prevail in the NW Gulf into tonight. The next cold front will emerge off of the Texas coast Thu morning, with strong N winds behind it spreading across the western and central Gulf behind it into the weekend. Gale conditions are expected near Tampico, Mexico, Thu evening and offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu night through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING. The weather pattern over the Caribbean Seas is one of a trade wind regime, dependent on the pressure gradient between high pressure centered in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South America. Relatively dry air is being brought over the waters with the trades, suppressing any convection from forming this morning. Where the gradient is tightest, fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing in the south-central and SW basin. The eastern and north- central Caribbean are experiencing moderate to fresh trades, with gentle to moderate E winds in the NW. Outside of the area described in the Gale Warning above, seas are 5 to 7 ft where fresh to strong wind are occurring, 4 to 6 ft in the moderate to fresh wind zone, and 2 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will prevail over the central Caribbean through the week as high pressure remains centered N of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in the far eastern Atlantic. A cold front passes from E of Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos. A paralleling surface trough is noted about 150 nm NW of the cold front. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 30 nm E of the frontal boundary, N of 27N. Ahead of the front, N of 27N, fresh to strong SW winds prevail eastward to 50W. Behind the front, N of 28N, fresh to strong W to NW winds dominate westward to 50W. Seas in the previously mentioned areas of higher winds are 9 to 14 ft. Elsewhere across waters N of 22N and W of 50W, winds are mainly moderate or less with seas of 5 to 8 ft. To the east, another cold front extends from 31N23W to 27N35W. To the W of this front, fresh mainly NE winds are ongoing with seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate Tropical Atlantic waters S of 22N. For the remainder of waters N of 22N and E of 50W, mainly moderate trades dominate with seas of 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front from E of Bermuda to just E of the Turks and Caicos will continue moving east and be out of the basin by Wed night. N of 27N and E of 65W, strong winds and rough seas in association with this front will prevail into tonight. A building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades south of 25N on Wed night into Fri night. $$ KONARIK