000 AXNT20 KNHC 120540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Feb 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and Colombia Low will continue to support strong to gale-force E to NE winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through midweek. Seas with these winds will range from 10 to 13 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low has moved inland over the eastern Florida Panhandle, with the associated cold front extending southward to the Yucatan Channel. This front will move SE of the area by Sun. As of 0300 UTC, gale-force winds are in the NE Gulf. Gales will continue behind the cold front as the low pressure strengthens and strong high pressure builds over northern Mexico. Seas of 12 to 14 ft are over the Bay of Campeche and the central Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 91W. Rough seas will build over the NE Gulf with the gales tomorrow morning. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure moving up the Eastern Seaboard into Sun will send a cold front offshore Florida late tonight, tracking across the waters through the middle of next week. North of 28N, gales are expected on both sides of the front through Mon. Rough seas will accompany these strong to gale force winds, peaking between 12 and 16 ft. For all the above Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 00N30W to 02N40W and 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 03N between 15W and 37W. Similar convection is from 05S to 01S between 20W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning for the NE Gulf. A 1007 mb low has moved inland over the eastern Florida Panhandle, with the associated cold front extending southward to the Yucatan Channel. A recent satellite scatterometer pass revealed strong to near gale force NW to N winds following this front to 93W due to a tight pressure gradient against strong high pressure over northern Mexico. Gale force widnsSeas behind the front and across most of the basin are in the 8-12 ft range, except for 13-15 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh winds are west of 93W. For the forecast, this front will move SE of the area by Sun. Gales over the NE Gulf are forecast to prevail through Sun. Elsewhere, strong to near gale-force northerly winds will dominate. Rough seas of 12 to 16 ft will encompass much of the Gulf during this time. Conditions will improve from W to E Sun night into Mon as high pressure builds into the basin. This high pressure will move E and out of the area Mon night quickly into Tue, allowing strong to near gale SE to SE return flow to develop over the W Gulf. Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge off the Texas coast on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Broad ridging associated with high pressure of 1025 mb centered near 29N53W continues to sustain an easterly trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas exist over most of the Caribbean basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will continue over the central and E Caribbean Sea through Sun night. These winds will pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night into Thu night. A cold front currently entering the Yucatan Channel will reach central Cuba to offshore Honduras Sun, then dissipate by Mon. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front over the NW Caribbean through Sun night. Elsewhere, large and long- period E swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is over the tropical N Atlantic. This swell is affecting the Lesser Antilles and will continue through Sun before gradually subsiding Mon. In the extended range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades across the Caribbean on Wed and Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas. Surface high pressure of 1025 mb centered near 29N53W extends a ridge across the SW N Atlantic subtropical waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and an approaching cold front from the W is supporting fresh to strong S winds over the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the entrance to the Windward Passage, and offshore the FL Peninsula. A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving E off the NE FL coast, north of 29N, where strong to near gale force winds were noted in a satellite scatterometer pass. The large and long-period E swell over the W Atlantic has abated. An area of low pressure has drifted south into the central Atlantic waters, bringing moderate to fresh N winds from 23N to 22N between 30W and 40W with 8 to 11 ft seas extending as far west as 45W. Seas will continue to propagate east and subside through tomorrow afternoon. Elsewhere, the broad subtropical ridge covers the remainder of central and E Atlantic waters, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N and west of 40W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate winds and seas are elsewhere over the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure moving up the Eastern Seaboard into Sun will send a cold front offshore Florida late tonight, tracking across the waters through the middle of next week. Strong winds and rough seas will occur on both sides of the front - mainly north of 26N through Tue. North of 28N, gales are expected on both sides of the front through Mon. Rough seas will accompany these strong to gale force winds. In the extended range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades south of 25N on Wed and Thu. $$ Mora